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31

SRPT

🏥 Healthcare

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1069Aggressive #175High RiskHigh 94
$18.97+0.69%
Day High$19.25
Day Low$18.71
Volume2.1M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $1052W High $110
Market Cap
$2.0B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
53.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
143.9%
Profit Margin
-11.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.95

Why This Score

SRPT scores 31.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (94/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (22.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.6
Fundamental Score23.1
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
53.2
6 Month
59.5
Primary
1 Year
62.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.0B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
32.1
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+2.1
Divergence
-4.5
Final
31.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)31.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.2% to +4.1%
Medium-term
+0.3% to +6.9%
Long-term
+0.9% to +9.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.6/100
Target Upside+18.6%
Coverage54 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score39.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.8%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-81.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector-107.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality-0.214
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P9
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 63th percentileP63
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (59.6) + 9% ML (60.8) + SHAP(+1.8) = 61.5
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($2.0B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.9pt (conviction=94)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 22.2%. Max drawdown 74% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -83% (-10.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $2.0B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #199 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SRPT31.6N/A53.0%-11.2%$2.0B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy54 analysts
Buy: 30Hold: 19Sell: 5
Price Target
$22consensus
Low $15Median $20High $32
+13.7% to consensus target

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-82.7%
High: $109.55
From 52W Low
+82.1%
Low: $10.42
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.30
Above
20-Day
$18.90
Above
50-Day
$20.60
Below
200-Day
$21.90
Below
60-Day Support
$16.9
60-Day Resistance
$24.68
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-43.58%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.65x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 53.0%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -28.0pt

Volume
100
3.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$55M/day
Float
99
99M shares
Mkt Cap
58
$2.0B
Range
100
951% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$65.30$101.2443.2%Wide
2022$61.28$134.0874.5%Wide
2023$55.25$159.8997.3%Wide
2024$91.34$173.2561.9%Wide
2025$10.42$129.84170.3%Wide
3-Year Range
177.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.1%
Outstanding Shares
105M
Bid-Ask Spread
951.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.