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54

ALRM

💻 Technology

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #472Aggressive #732Low RiskHigh 92
$47.08+3.54%
Day High$47.15
Day Low$44.50
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $4552W High $61
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
17.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
7.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
6.8%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.34

Why This Score

ALRM scores 53.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 16.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (5.3% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (92/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.34) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. ALRM's rank of #472 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.5
Fundamental Score53.4
ML Score44.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
61.6
6 Month
68.9
Primary
1 Year
72.5

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
44
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
49.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.6
Final
53.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.8% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-3.7% to +2.4%
Long-term
-4.5% to +3.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 44

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.4/100
Target Upside+13.8%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score43.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.97)
Relative Strength vs Sector-23.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality-0.159
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
23%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P42
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P61
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 72th percentileP72
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (68.0) + 9% ML (71.8) + SHAP(+3.0) = 71.4
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.3%. Stability bonus of +11.5 points. Max drawdown 21% (-5.2 pts). Price momentum -20% (-3.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.6pt (conviction=92)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #110 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALRM53.517.17.6%13.1%$2.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Strong Buy: 2Buy: 11Hold: 5Sell: 1
Price Target
$50consensus
Low $50Median $50High $50
+6.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company provides interactive security solutions to control and monitor their security systems, as well as connected security devices, including door locks, motion sensors, door locks, garage doors, Internet of Things, thermostats, and video cameras; and video monitoring solutions, such as video analytics, live streaming, video doorbell, video clips, video alerts, continuous high definition recording, and commercial video surveillance solutions. It also offers intelligent automation and energy management solutions comprising scenes button; smart thermostat schedules; responsive savings; precision comfort; energy usage monitoring; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring services; whole home water safety solutions; geo-services; and demand response programs. In addition, the company provides commercial solutions, such as daily safeguards, commercial grade video, energy savings, protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, multi-site management and access control, early identification, simple to use, professionally supported, and easy to maintain. Further, it offers service provider solutions, including a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools; sales, marketing, and training services; and home builder programs, as well as wellness solutions. The company serves residential and commercial subscribers. Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Tysons, Virginia.

CEO
Stephen S. Trundle
Employees
2,020
Beta
0.80
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.5%
High: $60.76
From 52W Low
+9.5%
Low: $43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.70
Above
20-Day
$46.60
Above
50-Day
$49.40
Below
200-Day
$53.30
Below
60-Day Support
$43
60-Day Resistance
$53.61
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 19/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.32%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.35x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$262M$256M$254M$239M
Gross Profit$164M$161M$167M$161M
Operating Income$36M$37M$32M$30M
Net Income$35M$35M$35M$28M
EPS (Diluted)$0.66$0.65$0.63$0.52
Gross Margin62.7%62.8%65.6%67.2%
Operating Margin13.9%14.6%12.6%12.4%
Net Margin13.3%13.8%13.6%11.7%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 17.1Profit margin 13.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.1)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 73/100Score impact: -0.2pt

Volume
70
405K avg/day
Dollar Vol
76
$18M/day
Float
77
47M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.3B
Range
81
43% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 16/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$73.61$95.8326.2%Moderate
2022$46.94$85.3758.1%Wide
2023$44.92$67.0239.5%Wide
2024$51.87$77.2939.4%Wide
2025$46.65$64.2631.8%Moderate
3-Year Range
53%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.7%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
43.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.