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60

WING

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Wingstop Inc.

Conservative #359Aggressive #81Moderate RiskModerate 68ML↑ 16pt
$275.16+8.25%
Day High$276.51
Day Low$255.98
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$7.6B
52W Low $20452W High $388
Market Cap
$7.4B
P/E Ratio
35.9
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
36.0%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
54.9%
Profit Margin
17.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

WING scores 60.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.87) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (94/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (16.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.0
Fundamental Score51.6
ML Score94.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.0
6 Month
84.9
Primary
1 Year
89.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
60.1
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-4.1
Final
60.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

70AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth90
Stability90
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)39.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.3% to +7.0%
Medium-term
+4.1% to +11.2%
Long-term
+6.1% to +15.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 94

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.4/100
Target Upside+34.4%
Coverage35 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.3/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.16)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality-0.030
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P96
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P20
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P27
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+1.9σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (62.8) + 9% ML (76.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 67.7—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.4%. Max drawdown 43% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -5% (-0.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #28 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WING60.035.936.0%17.4%$7.4B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold35 analysts
Buy: 16Hold: 19
Price Target
$333consensus
Low $280Median $335High $375
+21.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors. As of December 25, 2021, the company had 1,695 franchised restaurants and 36 company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 7 countries worldwide. Wingstop Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.

CEO
Michael J. Skipworth
Employees
325
Beta
1.81
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.3%
High: $388.14
From 52W Low
+34.6%
Low: $204
Moving Averages
10-Day
$252.10
Above
20-Day
$259.90
Above
50-Day
$260.90
Above
200-Day
$287.30
Below
60-Day Support
$218.11
60-Day Resistance
$302.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.59%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.86x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
31
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$176M$176M$174M$171M
Gross Profit$145M$86M$84M$82M
Operating Income$48M$49M$45M$38M
Net Income$27M$28M$27M$92M
EPS (Diluted)$0.96$1.02$0.96$3.24
Gross Margin82.4%48.9%48.4%48.2%
Operating Margin27.2%27.9%25.9%22.4%
Net Margin15.2%16.2%15.4%53.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 36.0%Profit margin 17.4%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -10.5pt

Volume
88
705K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$175M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
72
$7.4B
Range
100
90% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$112.49$187.3549.9%Wide
2022$67.67$174.7988.4%Wide
2023$129.46$261.9767.7%Wide
2024$241.78$433.8656.9%Wide
2025$204.00$388.1462.2%Wide
3-Year Range
108.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
90.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.