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58

ATAT

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limite

Conservative #341Aggressive #102Low RiskHigh 100
$41.17+0.59%
Day High$41.17
Day Low$40.26
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$5.7B
52W Low $2252W High $43
Market Cap
$5.4B
P/E Ratio
25.6
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
55.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
73.0%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.59

Why This Score

ATAT scores 58.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 43.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (30%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -14.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ATAT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.2
Fundamental Score62.3
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.1
6 Month
85.1
Primary
1 Year
89.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
56.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.5
Divergence
-2.6
Final
58.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth90
Stability75
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)81.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.8% to +12.3%
Medium-term
+11.2% to +19.5%
Long-term
+17.2% to +28.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+17.0%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+28.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector+29.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality+0.262
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P98
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P36
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P95
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 84 relative to sector peers84/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (83.9) + 9% ML (86.3) + SHAP(+4.4) = 88.5
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 10.9%. Max drawdown 14% (-2.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.4B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #31 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ATAT58.225.655.3%17.6%$5.4B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 4
Price Target
$46consensus
Low $44Median $46High $48
+11.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of hotels in China. The company operates a series of themed hotels, including music hotels, basketball hotels, and literary hotels catering to the various lifestyles across different age groups with varied interests. As of March 31, 2021, its hotel network covered 608 hotels spanning 131 cities in China, with a total of 71,121 hotel rooms, including 575 manachised hotels with a total of 66,267 manachised hotel rooms, as well as a pipeline of 299 hotels with a total of 32,825 rooms under development. The company also provides hotel management services, including day-to-day management services of the hotels for the franchisees; and sells hotel supplies and other products. Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

CEO
Haijun Wang
Employees
5,488
Beta
0.81
Industry
Travel Lodging
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
80.5
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.2%
High: $43.17
From 52W Low
+90.4%
Low: $21.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$39.40
Above
20-Day
$38.10
Above
50-Day
$39.20
Above
200-Day
$36.80
Above
60-Day Support
$34.59
60-Day Resistance
$43.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 63/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.66%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
14
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-11)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$2.6B$2.5B$1.9B$2.1B
Gross Profit$1.1B$1.1B$826M$884M
Operating Income$651M$595M$341M$382M
Net Income$474M$426M$243M$329M
EPS (Diluted)$3.39$3.03$1.74$2.37
Gross Margin43.5%45.3%43.3%42.6%
Operating Margin24.8%24.0%17.9%18.4%
Net Margin18.0%17.2%12.7%15.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 55.3%Profit margin 17.6%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 25.6)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -30.4pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
98
$47M/day
Float
100
137M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.4B
Range
100
101% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2023$14.80$29.4066.1%Wide
2024$15.22$29.9065.1%Wide
2025$21.50$43.1767%Wide
3-Year Range
97.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 3
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.7%
Outstanding Shares
139M
Bid-Ask Spread
101.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.