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51

MAT

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Mattel, Inc.

Conservative #502Aggressive #343Moderate Risk
$17.08+1.36%
Day High$17.31
Day Low$16.93
Volume5.7M
Mkt Cap$5.5B
52W Low $1452W High $22
Market Cap
$5.6B
P/E Ratio
13.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-1.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
152.8%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.19

Why This Score

MAT scores 54.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 23.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 13.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (71/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.19) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.3
Fundamental Score47.9
ML Score87.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.6
6 Month
90.1
Primary
1 Year
94.9

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
53.9
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-3.6
Final
54.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value85
Quality70
Growth90
Stability60
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)50.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.4% to +12.3%
Medium-term
+6.3% to +18.1%
Long-term
+9.6% to +25.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 87

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.8/100
Target Upside+14.8%
Coverage34 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.44)
Relative Strength vs Sector-23.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.8)
Momentum Quality-0.177
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
58%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P24
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P84
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 48 relative to sector peers48/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 87th percentileP87
Blended score: 80% fundamental (48) + 20% ML (87) = 55.755.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.6pt (ML 39pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -1.8ptValue Trap

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #44 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MAT54.313.3-1.1%10.1%$5.6B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

CEO
Ynon Kreiz
Employees
34,000
Beta
0.69
Industry
Leisure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
27.9
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24%
High: $22.48
From 52W Low
+22.4%
Low: $13.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.00
Above
20-Day
$18.80
Below
50-Day
$19.90
Below
200-Day
$19.10
Below
60-Day Support
$14.75
60-Day Resistance
$22.48
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 19/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-10.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.57%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.62x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
11
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.8B$1.7B$1.0B$827M
Gross Profit$812M$868M$519M$408M
Operating Income$161M$380M$78M$-53M
Net Income$106M$278M$53M$-40M
EPS (Diluted)$0.34$0.86$0.16$-0.12
Gross Margin46.0%50.0%50.9%49.4%
Operating Margin9.1%21.9%7.7%-6.4%
Net Margin6.0%16.0%5.2%-4.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 13.3Profit margin 10.1%Earnings quality grade DValuation below sector median (P/E 13.3)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -16.6pt

Volume
100
4.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$85M/day
Float
100
256M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.6B
Range
91
61% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 27/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$17.95$23.3126%Moderate
2022$16.21$26.9949.9%Wide
2023$15.36$22.6438.3%Wide
2024$15.87$20.6025.9%Moderate
2025$13.95$22.0745.1%Wide
3-Year Range
47.5%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
79.5%
Outstanding Shares
322M
Bid-Ask Spread
61.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.