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55

EXLS

💻 Technology

ExlService Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #426Aggressive #495Moderate RiskHigh 83
$28.67-0.28%
Day High$28.95
Day Low$26.94
Volume3.9M
Mkt Cap$4.6B
52W Low $2752W High $51
Market Cap
$4.9B
P/E Ratio
20.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
12.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
7.4%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.46

Why This Score

EXLS scores 55.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 24.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (83/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. EXLS ranks #426 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.0
Fundamental Score49.5
ML Score57.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.7
6 Month
63.4
Primary
1 Year
66.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
51.0
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.3
Final
55.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)38.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.9% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-3.9% to +2.3%
Long-term
-4.8% to +3.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 57

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.8/100
Target Upside+12.9%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-6.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-41.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.235
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
16%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P58
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P63
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 75 relative to sector peers75/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.0) + 9% ML (66.3) + SHAP(+2.4) = 76.6
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.6%. Max drawdown 38% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -38% (-6.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.9B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.6pt (conviction=83)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-40.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #96 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EXLS55.020.012.7%11.9%$4.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Buy: 13Hold: 5Sell: 1
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $35Median $38High $40
+30.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ExlService Holdings, Inc. operates as a data analytics, and digital operations and solutions company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance, Healthcare, Analytics, and Emerging Business segments. The company provides digital operations and solutions and analytics-driven services across the insurance industry in areas, such as claims processing, premium and benefit administration, agency management, account reconciliation, policy research, underwriting support, new business acquisition, policy servicing, premium audit, surveys, billing and collection, commercial and residential survey, and customer service using digital technology, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced automation; digital customer acquisition services using a software-as-a-service delivery model through LifePRO and LISS platforms; subrogation services; and Subrosource software platform, an end-to-end subrogation platform. It also offers CareRadius, an integrated care management offering; and health care services related to care management, utilization management, disease management, payment integrity, revenue optimization and customer engagement to healthcare payers, providers, pharmacy benefit managers, and life sciences organizations. Further, it offers predictive and prescriptive analytics in the areas of customer acquisition and lifecycle management, risk underwriting and pricing, operational effectiveness, credit and operational risk monitoring and governance, payment integrity and care management, and data management. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Rohit Kapoor
Employees
59,500
Beta
0.89
Industry
Information Technology Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
26.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-44.1%
High: $51.31
From 52W Low
+6.4%
Low: $26.94
Moving Averages
10-Day
$29.80
Below
20-Day
$32.20
Below
50-Day
$38.40
Below
200-Day
$41.80
Below
60-Day Support
$26.94
60-Day Resistance
$43.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-31.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.4%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.57x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$543M$530M$514M$501M
Gross Profit$210M$204M$194M$193M
Operating Income$78M$76M$81M$78M
Net Income$60M$58M$66M$67M
EPS (Diluted)$0.38$0.36$0.40$0.40
Gross Margin38.6%38.5%37.7%38.6%
Operating Margin14.4%14.4%15.8%15.7%
Net Margin11.1%11.0%12.8%13.3%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 20.0Revenue growth 12.7%Profit margin 11.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.0)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -4.4pt

Volume
100
1.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
97
$45M/day
Float
100
154M shares
Mkt Cap
67
$4.9B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.92$29.1958.8%Wide
2022$22.43$38.2452.1%Wide
2023$25.17$35.9435.2%Wide
2024$28.16$47.3750.9%Wide
2025$37.30$52.4333.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
70.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
95.1%
Outstanding Shares
162M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.