Back to Dashboard
52

TSLA

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Tesla, Inc.

Conservative #557Aggressive #808Low RiskML↑ 23pt
$402.51-1.49%
Day High$407.11
Day Low$398.12
Volume56.4M
Mkt Cap$1.5T
52W Low $21452W High $499
Market Cap
$1.5T
P/E Ratio
383.0
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-2.9%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-46.8%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

TSLA scores 52.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Large-cap ($1510B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 383.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. TSLA's rank of #557 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.7
Fundamental Score51.1
ML Score39.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.3
6 Month
76.3
Primary
1 Year
80.4

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
48.7
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Final
52.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

55AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth35
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)27.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.7% to +8.7%
Medium-term
+6.3% to +13.8%
Long-term
+9.7% to +20.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 39

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.1/100
Target Upside+15.9%
Coverage80 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector+41.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality+0.378
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P18
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P18
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 39th percentileP39
Blended score: 80% fundamental (51) + 20% ML (39) = 48.748.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 11% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #50 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TSLA52.7383.0-2.9%4.0%$1.5T
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

CEO
Elon R. Musk
Employees
125,665
Beta
1.89
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.3%
High: $498.83
From 52W Low
+87.9%
Low: $214.25
Moving Averages
10-Day
$410.10
Below
20-Day
$413.90
Below
50-Day
$436.10
Below
200-Day
$390.70
Above
60-Day Support
$387.53
60-Day Resistance
$498.83
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.64%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$371.40
Stop Entry Now Target
$553.48
Entry Zone
$431.74$449.18
SMA50 pullback zone ($431.74–$449.18)
Exit Target
$537.36
52-week high / +22% target ($537.36)
Stop Level
$382.89
Below SMA200 ($382.89)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.68Tight

Stage 2 uptrend — institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$24.9B$28.1B$22.5B$19.3B
Gross Profit$5.0B$5.1B$3.9B$3.2B
Operating Income$1.4B$1.6B$923M$399M
Net Income$840M$1.4B$1.2B$409M
EPS (Diluted)$0.24$0.39$0.33$0.12
Gross Margin20.1%18.0%17.2%16.3%
Operating Margin5.7%5.8%4.1%2.1%
Net Margin3.4%4.9%5.2%2.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A — 100/100Score impact: +7.3pt

Volume
100
66.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$26.7B/day
Float
100
2.7B shares
Mkt Cap
100
$1.5T
Range
100
133% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$179.83$414.5079%Wide
2022$108.24$402.67115.3%Wide
2023$101.81$299.2998.5%Wide
2024$138.80$488.54111.5%Wide
2025$214.25$498.8379.8%Wide
3-Year Range
132.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
71.8%
Outstanding Shares
3.8B
Bid-Ask Spread
133.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.