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RIVN

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Rivian Automotive, Inc.

Conservative #1190Aggressive #582Moderate RiskMixed 45MLโ†‘ 27pt
$15.65+2.66%
Day High$15.77
Day Low$15.13
Volume18.9M
Mkt Cap$19.4B
52W Low $1052W High $23
Market Cap
$19.4B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
8.4%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
23.2%
Profit Margin
-67.7%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.46

Why This Score

RIVN scores 24.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (13.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.46) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score24.9
Fundamental Score28.6
ML Score21.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
46.4
6 Month
51.8
Primary
1 Year
54.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
24.1
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.1
Conviction
-0.5
Final
24.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)51.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.2% to +0.1%
Medium-term
-6.3% to +0.2%
Long-term
-8.4% to +0.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 21

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.5/100
Target Upside+23.6%
Coverage28 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score68.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+19.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector+48.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality+0.372
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P69
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 29 relative to sector peers29/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 21th percentileP21
Blended score: 80% fundamental (29) + 20% ML (21) = 27.127.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH (3.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #103 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RIVN24.9N/A8.4%-67.7%$19.4B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy28 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 11Sell: 6
Price Target
$18consensus
Low $11Median $18High $25
+17.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Rivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.

CEO
Robert Joseph Scaringe
Employees
14,861
Beta
1.77
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.5%
High: $22.69
From 52W Low
+50%
Low: $10.36
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.60
Below
20-Day
$15.10
Above
50-Day
$17.20
Below
200-Day
$14.90
Above
60-Day Support
$13.58
60-Day Resistance
$22.69
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 68/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.55%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.12x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
9
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap UpRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.3B$1.6B$1.3B$1.2B
Gross Profit$120M$24M$-206M$206M
Operating Income$-833M$-983M$-1.1B$-655M
Net Income$-811M$-1.2B$-1.1B$-545M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.66$-0.96$-0.97$-0.48
Gross Margin9.3%1.5%-15.8%16.6%
Operating Margin-64.8%-63.1%-85.5%-52.8%
Net Margin-63.1%-75.3%-85.7%-44.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 98/100Score impact: -22.6pt

Volume
100
37.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$560M/day
Float
100
813M shares
Mkt Cap
84
$19.4B
Range
100
119% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$17.45$106.80143.8%Wide
2023$11.68$28.0682.4%Wide
2024$8.26$21.9490.6%Wide
2025$10.36$22.6974.6%Wide
3-Year Range
109%
Narrow Years
0 / 4
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
65.7%
Outstanding Shares
1.2B
Bid-Ask Spread
119.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.