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33

TRUP

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Trupanion, Inc.

Conservative #1003Aggressive #816Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 28pt
$26.54-2.57%
Day High$26.84
Day Low$26.25
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $2552W High $58
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
63.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
11.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
301.7%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.29

Why This Score

TRUP scores 34.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 63.2x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (13.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. TRUP's rank of #1003 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.1
Fundamental Score33.9
ML Score25.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.2
6 Month
69.5
Primary
1 Year
73.2

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-360.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
38
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
69
Grade B
Base
30.1
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Final
34.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value30
Quality27
Growth82
Stability62
Investment85

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)33.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)63.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.4% to +3.8%
Medium-term
-0.0% to +6.5%
Long-term
+0.4% to +9.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 25

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score37.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.48)
Relative Strength vs Sector-27.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.096
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P7
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P49
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 34 relative to sector peers34/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 25th percentileP25
Blended score: 80% fundamental (34) + 20% ML (25) = 32.132.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 49% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-360.5%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #266 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TRUP34.163.211.9%1.4%$1.2B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on a monthly subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and Other Business. It serves pet owners and veterinarians. The company was formerly known as Vetinsurance International, Inc. changed its name to Trupanion, Inc. in 2013. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Margaret Rosemary Maria Tooth
Employees
1,130
Beta
1.60
Industry
Insurance - Specialty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
23.7
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-54.2%
High: $57.89
From 52W Low
+5.2%
Low: $25.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$27.70
Below
20-Day
$30.10
Below
50-Day
$33.30
Below
200-Day
$42.30
Below
60-Day Support
$25.24
60-Day Resistance
$38.86
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 16/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-37.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.24%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.49x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$377M$367M$354M$342M
Gross Profit$114M$60M$55M$51M
Operating Income$6M$6M$2M$-1M
Net Income$6M$6M$9M$-1M
EPS (Diluted)$0.13$0.13$0.22$-0.03
Gross Margin30.3%16.4%15.5%14.9%
Operating Margin1.7%1.6%0.7%-0.4%
Net Margin1.5%1.6%2.7%-0.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 11.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 63.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 69/100Score impact: -5.1pt

Volume
76
462K avg/day
Dollar Vol
65
$13M/day
Float
64
34M shares
Mkt Cap
44
$1.2B
Range
100
114% spread
Composite Liquidity Score69/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
79.4%
Outstanding Shares
43M
Bid-Ask Spread
114.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.