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TMDX

🏥 Healthcare

TransMedics Group, Inc.

Conservative #541Aggressive #443Moderate RiskLow 29ML↑ 36pt
$131.85-4.30%
Day High$144.49
Day Low$129.51
Volume2.6M
Mkt Cap$4.5B
52W Low $6252W High $156
Market Cap
$4.6B
P/E Ratio
49.9
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
82.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
241.7%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.46

Why This Score

TMDX scores 50.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 31.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 49.9x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (17.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.46) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.4 points) applied. TMDX's rank of #541 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.9
Fundamental Score53.1
ML Score29.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.7
6 Month
90.2
Primary
1 Year
94.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
48.3
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-1.4
Final
50.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.4% to +21.1%
Medium-term
+21.0% to +30.9%
Long-term
+30.4% to +44.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 29

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+10.4%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score69.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+57.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.18)
Relative Strength vs Sector+45.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.1)
Momentum Quality+0.583
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P90
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P10
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P70
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 95th percentileP95
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (59.9) + 9% ML (95.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 65.5—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 17.1%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.5 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.6B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.0pt (conviction=29)—
Divergence penalty: -3.8pt (ML 36pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-94.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #71 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TMDX50.949.982.7%16.2%$4.6B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 2
Price Target
$148consensus
Low $135Median $147High $166
+12.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its Organ Care System includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for extracorporeal perfusion and preservation of donor hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of donor livers. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

CEO
Waleed H. Hassanein
Employees
728
Beta
1.98
Industry
Medical - Devices
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.5%
High: $156
From 52W Low
+112.4%
Low: $62.07
Moving Averages
10-Day
$133.20
Below
20-Day
$134.30
Below
50-Day
$132.70
Below
200-Day
$125.30
Above
60-Day Support
$119.29
60-Day Resistance
$156
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+5.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+15.75%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$161M$144M$157M$144M
Gross Profit$93M$85M$97M$88M
Operating Income$21M$23M$37M$27M
Net Income$105M$24M$35M$26M
EPS (Diluted)$2.59$0.66$0.92$0.70
Gross Margin58.1%58.8%61.4%61.5%
Operating Margin13.2%16.2%23.2%19.1%
Net Margin65.6%16.9%22.2%17.9%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 82.7%Profit margin 16.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -4.4pt

Volume
89
724K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$98M/day
Float
63
33M shares
Mkt Cap
67
$4.6B
Range
100
151% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$19.00$49.5089.1%Wide
2022$10.00$64.36146.2%Wide
2023$36.42$99.6392.9%Wide
2024$58.27$177.37101.1%Wide
2025$55.00$156.0095.7%Wide
3-Year Range
131.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.6%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
151.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.