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54

TIPT

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Tiptree Inc.

Conservative #497Aggressive #484Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 17pt
$17.03-0.87%
Day High$17.27
Day Low$16.77
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$644M
52W Low $1652W High $27
Market Cap
$643M
P/E Ratio
12.7
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
23.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
282.5%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

TIPT scores 54.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (76/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.4
Fundamental Score56.2
ML Score52.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.9
6 Month
82.6
Primary
1 Year
86.9

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
31
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
48
Grade Clow dollar volume
Base
50.4
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Final
54.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

71AVG
Value84
Quality33
Growth94
Stability76
Investment66

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)58.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.2% to +7.0%
Medium-term
+4.0% to +11.2%
Long-term
+5.9% to +15.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 52

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score30.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-29.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality-0.156
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P63
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P95
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 52th percentileP52
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (52) = 55.455.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 26% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #159 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TIPT54.412.723.9%2.5%$643M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Tiptree Inc., through its subsidiaries, underwrites and administers specialty insurance products primarily in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Mortgage. It offers niche commercial and personal lines insurance, credit insurance and collateral protection products, and warranty and service contract products and solutions, as well as premium finance services. The company also offers mortgage loans for institutional investors; and maritime shipping services, as well as invests in shares. It markets its products through a network of independent insurance agents, consumer finance companies, auto dealers, retailers, brokers, and managing general agencies. The company was formerly known as Tiptree Financial Inc. and changed its name to Tiptree Inc. in December 2016. Tiptree Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is based in New York, New York.

CEO
Michael Gene Barnes
Employees
1,496
Beta
1.22
Industry
Insurance - Specialty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-37.9%
High: $27.41
From 52W Low
+3.8%
Low: $16.41
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.20
Below
20-Day
$17.40
Below
50-Day
$17.70
Below
200-Day
$20.10
Below
60-Day Support
$16.41
60-Day Resistance
$18.81
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 15/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-15.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.25%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$523M$527M$497M$503M
Gross Profit$161M$301M$287M$307M
Operating Income$38M$53M$25M$42M
Net Income$6M$19M$6M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$0.13$0.37$0.13$0.47
Gross Margin30.8%57.0%57.9%61.0%
Operating Margin7.3%10.0%5.1%8.4%
Net Margin1.2%3.6%1.1%3.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.7Revenue growth 23.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.7)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 48/100Score impact: +6.8pt

Volume
51
209K avg/day
Dollar Vol
31
$3M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
33
$643M
Range
93
67% spread
Composite Liquidity Score48/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
61.6%
Outstanding Shares
38M
Bid-Ask Spread
67.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.