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64

AMSF

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

AMERISAFE, Inc.

Conservative #272Aggressive #954Low Risk
$32.53-3.27%
Day High$33.50
Day Low$32.00
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$618M
52W Low $3252W High $53
Market Cap
$715M
P/E Ratio
14.3
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
0.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-10.7%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

AMSF scores 64.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 14.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (93/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.4
Fundamental Score64.5
ML Score69.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
52.4
6 Month
58.5
Primary
1 Year
61.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.050 vol with only 0.7% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
47
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
60.4
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.3
Conviction
+2.0
Final
64.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value77
Quality52
Growth33
Stability79
Investment41

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.3% to +0.5%
Medium-term
-9.4% to +0.8%
Long-term
-12.5% to +1.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 69

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+53.4%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.65)
Relative Strength vs Sector-30.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.3)
Momentum Quality-0.161
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P53
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P32
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
Blended score: 80% fundamental (65) + 20% ML (69) = 65.465.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.050 vol with only 0.7% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safetyFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #99 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AMSF64.414.30.7%16.1%$715M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. It serves small to mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in DeRidder, Louisiana.

CEO
Gerry Janelle Frost
Employees
362
Beta
0.38
Industry
Insurance - Specialty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
12.3
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-38.9%
High: $53.27
From 52W Low
+1.7%
Low: $32
Moving Averages
10-Day
$36.60
Below
20-Day
$37.60
Below
50-Day
$37.90
Below
200-Day
$42.10
Below
60-Day Support
$32
60-Day Resistance
$40.46
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.85%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.16x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$82M$82M$81M$73M
Gross Profit$53M$34M$34M$26M
Operating Income$13M$17M$17M$11M
Net Income$10M$14M$14M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.55$0.72$0.73$0.47
Gross Margin64.5%41.6%42.2%36.4%
Operating Margin15.6%21.3%21.5%15.5%
Net Margin12.8%16.9%17.2%12.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.3Profit margin 16.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.3)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 47/100Score impact: +12.8pt

Volume
37
162K avg/day
Dollar Vol
52
$6M/day
Float
45
19M shares
Mkt Cap
34
$715M
Range
84
47% spread
Composite Liquidity Score47/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingstagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.8%
Outstanding Shares
19M
Bid-Ask Spread
47.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.