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BANF

🏦 Financial Services

BancFirst Corporation

Conservative #218Aggressive #777Low RiskModerate 72
Market Cap
$3.9B
P/E Ratio
16.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-9.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
11.2%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

BANF scores 64.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 29.2%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (72/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.2
Fundamental Score67.0
ML Score58.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.7
6 Month
76.8
Primary
1 Year
80.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
30
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
42
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
53
Grade Clow volume
Base
60.2
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Final
64.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)43.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 58

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score41.7/100
Target Upside-14.3%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score30.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.02)
Relative Strength vs Sector-8.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.002
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P36
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P43
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 67 relative to sector peers67/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (66.8) + 9% ML (78.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 71.6
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.4%. Stability bonus of +9.2 points. Max drawdown 20% (-4.8 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.9B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #67 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BANF64.216.2-9.3%29.2%$3.9B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for BANF.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 16.2Profit margin 29.2%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 53/100Score impact: +16.8pt

Volume
24
123K avg/day
Dollar Vol
67
$14M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.9B
Range
82
43% spread
Composite Liquidity Score53/100
FDCBA
low volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.08x dampening
weinstein decliningrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
69.4%
Outstanding Shares
33M
Bid-Ask Spread
43.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.