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34

AVPT

💻 Technology

AvePoint, Inc.

Conservative #1005Aggressive #1341Moderate RiskMixed 51ML↑ 24pt
$10.23+0.99%
Day High$10.32
Day Low$9.91
Volume1.6M
Mkt Cap$2.2B
52W Low $1052W High $20
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
1130.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
21.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-33.9%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

AVPT scores 34.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 1130.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-4.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.3
Fundamental Score44.4
ML Score0.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.8
6 Month
76.9
Primary
1 Year
80.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-3745.0%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
35.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-4.4
Final
34.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)35.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)35.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.1% to +5.6%
Medium-term
+2.3% to +9.2%
Long-term
+3.5% to +12.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 0

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+78.1%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-32.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.1)
Momentum Quality-0.160
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P75
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P1
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (56.6) + 9% ML (81.0) + SHAP(+1.8) = 60.6—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.5%. Max drawdown 45% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -29% (-4.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.1pt (ML 24pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-3745.0%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 1.6% (original: 1.8%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #228 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AVPT34.31130.021.6%0.5%$2.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 2
Price Target
$18consensus
Low $16Median $18High $18
+71.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

AvePoint, Inc. provides Microsoft 365 data management solutions worldwide. It offers SaaS platform cloud-hosted collaboration systems by providing suite of software products. The company focuses on data protection, governance, compliance management extensions for Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, Salesforce, and Google Workspace. In addition, the company offers software solutions for Microsoft 365, including microsoft teams, sharepoint online, exchange online, onedrive, project online, planner, yammer and other public folders. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.

CEO
Tianyi Jiang
Employees
2,934
Beta
1.11
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-49.5%
High: $20.25
From 52W Low
+3.8%
Low: $9.86
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.40
Below
20-Day
$10.80
Below
50-Day
$12.30
Below
200-Day
$15.30
Below
60-Day Support
$9.86
60-Day Resistance
$14.24
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-33.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.78%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$110M$102M$93M$89M
Gross Profit$82M$76M$69M$67M
Operating Income$8M$7M$3M$5M
Net Income$13M$3M$3M$-17M
EPS (Diluted)$0.06$0.01$0.02$-0.09
Gross Margin74.4%74.0%74.3%75.4%
Operating Margin7.4%7.0%3.5%5.4%
Net Margin11.9%2.6%3.7%-19.3%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 21.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -0.9pt

Volume
100
2.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
100
136M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.3B
Range
100
105% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$5.97$14.0080.4%Wide
2022$3.40$6.7065.3%Wide
2023$3.89$8.6175.5%Wide
2024$7.08$19.1692.1%Wide
2025$11.49$20.2555.2%Wide
3-Year Range
135.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
63.1%
Outstanding Shares
216M
Bid-Ask Spread
105.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.