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SKYT

💻 Technology

SkyWater Technology, Inc.

Conservative #1025Aggressive #958Moderate RiskMixed 51
$28.80+2.42%
Day High$29.09
Day Low$28.30
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $652W High $36
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
10.8
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
19.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
77.9%
Profit Margin
36.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.10

Why This Score

SKYT scores 33.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 144.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 36.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.8x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (213%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (28.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.10) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-9.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.2
Fundamental Score47.2
ML Score14.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
42.5
6 Month
47.5
Primary
1 Year
49.9

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
71
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
33.6
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.5
Divergence
-2.7
Final
33.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)73.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.4% to -0.0%
Medium-term
-6.5% to +0.0%
Long-term
-8.6% to +0.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 14

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+25.8%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score70.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+2.1%
6M Momentum+1.4%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+69.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.67)
Relative Strength vs Sector+209.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.759
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P72
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P72
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P11
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 52th percentileP52
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (61.0) + 9% ML (51.5) + SHAP(+1.8) = 61.9
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 28.5%. Max drawdown 18% (-3.8 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (213% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.4B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (36.4%) exceeds operating margin (0.9%) by 35pp — likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (95.5%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 0.5% (original: 0.5%). Semiconductors has ~18% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~45%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #233 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SKYT33.210.819.4%36.4%$1.4B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold6 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 4
Price Target
$35consensus
Low $35Median $35High $35
+21.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

SkyWater Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides semiconductor development and manufacturing services. The company offers engineering and process development support services to co-create technologies with customers; and semiconductor manufacturing services for various silicon-based analog and mixed-signal, power discrete, microelectromechanical systems, and rad-hard integrated circuits. It serves customers operating in the computation, aerospace and defense, automotive and transportation, bio-health, consumer, and industrial/internet of things industries. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Bloomington, Minnesota.

CEO
Thomas J. Sonderman
Employees
702
Beta
3.51
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-20.6%
High: $36.27
From 52W Low
+407.9%
Low: $5.67
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.60
Above
20-Day
$29.80
Below
50-Day
$26.70
Above
200-Day
$16.40
Above
60-Day Support
$14.3
60-Day Resistance
$36.27
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+75.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+46.82%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$171M$151M$59M$61M
Gross Profit$26M$36M$11M$14M
Operating Income$-3M$11M$-6M$-4M
Net Income$-8M$144M$-10M$-7M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.16$2.95$-0.21$-0.15
Gross Margin14.9%24.0%18.5%23.3%
Operating Margin-1.8%7.3%-11.0%-6.6%
Net Margin-4.5%95.5%-16.9%-12.0%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 10.8Revenue growth 19.4%Profit margin 36.4%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 85/100Score impact: -19.9pt

Volume
100
2.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$65M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
47
$1.4B
Range
100
540% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$13.81$36.8090.9%Wide
2022$4.43$20.95130.2%Wide
2023$4.73$15.99108.7%Wide
2024$5.63$19.00108.6%Wide
2025$5.67$24.23124.1%Wide
3-Year Range
134.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
72.1%
Outstanding Shares
49M
Bid-Ask Spread
540.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.