Back to Dashboard
23

POET

💻 Technology

POET Technologies Inc.

Conservative #1267Aggressive #793Moderate RiskLow 39F↑ 18pt
$6.36+4.09%
Day High$6.52
Day Low$6.12
Volume5.4M
Mkt Cap$838M
52W Low $352W High $9
Market Cap
$750M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-91.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-179.7%
Profit Margin
-6627.9%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.11

Why This Score

POET scores 22.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (99/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -29.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, POET would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score22.9
Fundamental Score31.3
ML Score99.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
3.4
6 Month
3.8
Primary
1 Year
4.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 7 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
82
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
37.9
SHAP
-4.5
Factors
-1.5
Conviction
-1.1
Divergence
-7.9
Final
22.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-38.0% to -26.0%
Medium-term
-52.6% to -36.6%
Long-term
-67.7% to -43.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 99

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+46.4%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score81.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+37.5%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.10)
Relative Strength vs Sector+38.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality+0.320
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P0
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P5
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-2.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 36 relative to sector peers36/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 18th percentileP18
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -4.5pt (features diverge from model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (35.5) + 9% ML (17.2) + SHAP(-4.5) = 29.3—
Factor quality: -1.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.1%. Max drawdown 23% (-6.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.1pt (conviction=39)—
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (fund 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-5151.5%) exceeds net margin (-6627.9%) by 1476pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (44.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #268 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
POET22.9N/A-91.1%-6627.9%$750M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy2 analysts
Buy: 2
Price Target
$8consensus
Low $8Median $8High $8
+25.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

POET Technologies Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells discrete and integrated opto-electronic solutions in Canada, the United States, and Singapore. It offers integration solutions based on the POET Optical Interposer, a novel platform that allows the seamless integration of electronic and photonic devices into a single multi-chip module using advanced wafer-level semiconductor manufacturing techniques and packaging methods. It also develops photonic integrated components. The company serves the data center, telecommunications, Internet of things and industrial sensing, automotive LIDAR, optical coherence tomography for medical devices, virtual reality systems markets. The company was formerly known as Opel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to POET Technologies Inc. in June 2013. POET Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

CEO
Suresh V. Venkatesan
Employees
53
Beta
0.37
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
61.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-32.4%
High: $9.41
From 52W Low
+105.8%
Low: $3.09
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.70
Above
20-Day
$5.80
Above
50-Day
$6.60
Below
200-Day
$5.80
Above
60-Day Support
$4.6
60-Day Resistance
$9.14
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.55%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.58x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$298,434$268,469$166,760$29,032
Gross Profit$-594,270$268,469$166,760$29,032
Operating Income$-10M$-9M$-10M$-11M
Net Income$-9M$-17M$6M$-30M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.10$-0.21$0.08$-0.42
Gross Margin-199.1%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-3201.6%-3261.9%-5718.6%-39410.8%
Net Margin-3139.6%-6430.3%3802.8%-104227.2%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -49.0pt

Volume
100
8.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
98
$47M/day
Float
96
90M shares
Mkt Cap
35
$750M
Range
100
205% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$6.20$12.8069.5%Wide
2022$2.34$11.00129.8%Wide
2023$0.72$6.23158.6%Wide
2024$0.84$7.79161%Wide
2025$3.09$9.41101.1%Wide
3-Year Range
171.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
68.6%
Outstanding Shares
132M
Bid-Ask Spread
205.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.