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41

RWAYL

🏦 Financial Services

Runway Growth Finance Corp. - 7

Conservative #853Aggressive #1160Low Risk
$25.10+0.02%
Day High$25.28
Day Low$25.06
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$907M
52W Low $2552W High $26
Market Cap
$911M
P/E Ratio
5.4
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
31.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
66.0%
Profit Margin
51.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.91

Why This Score

RWAYL scores 41.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 51.6%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 5.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (1.1% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -31.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, RWAYL would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score41.1
Fundamental Score72.9
ML Score50.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.4
6 Month
85.3
Primary
1 Year
89.8

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.01) with 51.6% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
38.3
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-1.2
Final
41.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

81AVG
Value93
Quality62
Growth100
Stability87
Investment62

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)82.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.0% to +5.5%
Medium-term
+2.2% to +9.1%
Long-term
+3.4% to +12.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 50

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.55)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.095
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P87
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P96
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P87
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
Blended score: 80% fundamental (73) + 20% ML (50) = 68.368.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 1% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 23pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.01) with 51.6% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #240 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RWAYL41.15.431.4%51.6%$911M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for RWAYL.

Company Overviewvia FMP

Runway Growth Finance Corp. is a closed-end investment company. It engages in the provision of senior secured loans to high growth-potential companies in technology, life sciences, healthcare information and services, business services, select consumer services and products, and other high-growth industries. The company was founded by Robert David Spreng on August 31, 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

CEO
Greg Greifeld
Beta
0.62
Industry
Financial - Credit Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.4%
High: $25.73
From 52W Low
+2%
Low: $24.6
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.20
Below
20-Day
$25.30
Below
50-Day
$25.30
Below
200-Day
$25.20
Below
60-Day Support
$25.01
60-Day Resistance
$25.73
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 40/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.28%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.02x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$23.53
Stop Entry Now Target
$31.02
Entry Zone
$24.70$25.70
Near SMA200 base ($24.7–$25.7)
Exit Target
$30.12
Prior high / breakout target ($30.12)
Stop Level
$24.26
60-day low ($24.26)
Risk / Reward:1 : 5.23Favorable

Stage 1 base-building — stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$21M$31M$14M$41M
Gross Profit$12M$20M$5M$31M
Operating Income$8M$17M$2M$28M
Net Income$8M$17M$2M$28M
EPS (Diluted)$0.22$0.45$0.42$0.75
Gross Margin55.5%67.1%35.2%75.9%
Operating Margin38.2%55.0%13.6%68.6%
Net Margin38.2%55.0%13.6%68.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 5.4Revenue growth 31.4%Profit margin 51.6%

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -17.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
5K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$130K/day
Float
0
0K shares
Mkt Cap
0
$911M
Range
0
5% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumerange bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 100/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 4 of the last 4 years (3-year range: 9%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$24.11$25.696.3%Narrow
2023$23.34$25.277.9%Narrow
2024$24.43$25.343.7%Narrow
2025$24.60$25.533.7%Narrow
3-Year Range
9%
Narrow Years
4 / 4
Sideways Penalty
-5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
range bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
5.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.