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30

ATLC

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation

Conservative #1076Aggressive #1069Moderate Risk
$52.31-2.97%
Day High$53.42
Day Low$51.83
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$792M
52W Low $4152W High $79
Market Cap
$789M
P/E Ratio
7.0
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
25.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
8.2%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
9.63

Why This Score

ATLC scores 30.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 21.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 20.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 7.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (89/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (14.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 9.63) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -15.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ATLC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score30.4
Fundamental Score44.5
ML Score29.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
52.7
6 Month
58.9
Primary
1 Year
62.0

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-321.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 9.6x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
45
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
29
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
26.5
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.5
Divergence
-0.1
Final
30.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value89
Quality54
Growth72
Stability52
Investment62

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)66.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.8% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-3.8% to +2.3%
Long-term
-4.7% to +3.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 29

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.8/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.0/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+16.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.25)
Relative Strength vs Sector-14.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality-0.043
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P93
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P98
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (29) = 41.441.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 23% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.1pt (ML 16pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-321.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 9.6x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #275 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ATLC30.47.025.7%20.1%$789M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy6 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 1
Price Target
$95consensus
Low $95Median $95High $95
+81.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation provides credit and related financial services and products to customers the United States. It operates in two segments, Credit as a Service, and Auto Finance. The Credit as a Service segment originates a range of consumer loan products, such as private label and general purpose credit cards originated by lenders through various channels, including retail and healthcare, direct mail solicitation, digital marketing, and partnerships with third parties; and offers credit to their customers for the purchase of various goods and services, including consumer electronics, furniture, elective medical procedures, healthcare, educational services, and home-improvements by partnering with retailers and service providers. In addition, it offers loan servicing, such as risk management and customer service outsourcing for third parties; and engages in testing and investment activities in consumer finance technology platforms. The Auto Finance segment purchases and/or services loans secured by automobiles from or for a pre-qualified network of independent automotive dealers and automotive finance companies in the buy-here, pay-here, and used car business. This segment also provides floor plan financing and installment lending products. Further, the company invests in and services portfolios of credit card receivables. Atlanticus Holdings Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

CEO
Jeffrey A. Howard
Employees
417
Beta
1.96
Industry
Financial - Credit Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-33.7%
High: $78.91
From 52W Low
+26.4%
Low: $41.37
Moving Averages
10-Day
$53.50
Below
20-Day
$53.90
Below
50-Day
$59.60
Below
200-Day
$57.70
Below
60-Day Support
$50.13
60-Day Resistance
$70.95
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.19%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$179M$143M$135M$133M
Gross Profit$102M$88M$86M$82M
Operating Income$32M$40M$41M$40M
Net Income$25M$31M$32M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$1.18$1.51$1.49$1.42
Gross Margin56.9%61.6%63.9%61.2%
Operating Margin18.2%28.0%30.3%29.9%
Net Margin14.0%21.3%23.4%23.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 7.0Revenue growth 25.7%Profit margin 20.1%

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 29/100Score impact: -16.4pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
7
71K avg/day
Dollar Vol
34
$4M/day
Float
15
9M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$789M
Range
100
91% spread
Composite Liquidity Score29/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
62.4%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
91.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.