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31

DKNG

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

DraftKings Inc.

Conservative #1052Aggressive #245High RiskModerate 78
$22.73-0.92%
Day High$23.24
Day Low$22.64
Volume4.9M
Mkt Cap$11.3B
52W Low $2152W High $49
Market Cap
$11.5B
P/E Ratio
10.7
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
27.0%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
100.7%
Profit Margin
0.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
2.99

Why This Score

DKNG scores 31.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 10.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (78/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.99) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.3
Fundamental Score23.6
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
53.3
6 Month
59.5
Primary
1 Year
62.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
High leverage: D/E ratio of 3.0x — elevated balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
30.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-3.2
Final
31.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

64AVG
Value85
Quality55
Growth90
Stability35
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)24.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +2.0%
Medium-term
-2.7% to +3.4%
Long-term
-3.3% to +4.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.0/100
Target Upside+75.2%
Coverage47 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector-51.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality-0.229
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P92
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P66
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+1.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 63th percentileP63
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (51.8) + 9% ML (62.6) + SHAP(+2.4) = 55.2
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($10.8B market cap)+2.0 pts
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 14.7%. Max drawdown 55% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -50% (-9.1 pts)High
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 3.0x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #91 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DKNG31.310.727.0%0.1%$11.5B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

DraftKings Inc. operates a digital sports entertainment and gaming company. It offers multi-channel sports betting and gaming technologies, powering sports and gaming entertainment for operators in 17 countries. The company operates iGaming through its DraftKings brand in 5 states, as well as operates Golden Nugget Online Gaming, an iGaming product and gaming brand in 3 states. Its Sportsbook is live with mobile and/or retail betting operations in the United States pursuant to regulations in 18 states. The company's daily fantasy sports product is available in 6 countries internationally with 15 distinct sports categories. In addition, it offers DraftKings Marketplace, a digital collectibles ecosystem designed for mainstream accessibility that offers curated NFT drops and supports secondary-market transactions, as well as owns Vegas Sports Information Network (VSiN), a multi-platform broadcast and content company. DraftKings Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

CEO
Jason D. Robins
Employees
5,100
Beta
1.65
Industry
Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-53.5%
High: $48.78
From 52W Low
+8%
Low: $21.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$22.70
Below
20-Day
$24.90
Below
50-Day
$30.30
Below
200-Day
$36.60
Below
60-Day Support
$21.01
60-Day Resistance
$36.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 4/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-38%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.28%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.47x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$2.0B$1.1B$1.5B$1.4B
Gross Profit$915M$360M$658M$565M
Operating Income$158M$-272M$151M$-46M
Net Income$136M$-257M$158M$-34M
EPS (Diluted)$0.26$-0.48$0.30$-0.07
Gross Margin46.0%31.5%43.5%40.1%
Operating Margin7.9%-23.8%10.0%-3.3%
Net Margin6.9%-22.4%10.4%-2.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 10.7Revenue growth 27.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -25.7pt

Volume
100
14.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$307M/day
Float
100
479M shares
Mkt Cap
80
$11.5B
Range
100
132% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$25.80$74.3897%Wide
2022$9.77$28.5598%Wide
2023$10.98$39.35112.7%Wide
2024$28.69$49.5753.4%Wide
2025$26.23$53.6168.6%Wide
3-Year Range
132%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.3%
Outstanding Shares
498M
Bid-Ask Spread
132.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.