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RCAT

💻 Technology

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #1167Aggressive #848Moderate RiskHigh 91
$12.42-3.57%
Day High$13.25
Day Low$12.39
Volume8.5M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $552W High $18
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-59.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-172.0%
Profit Margin
-435.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.09

Why This Score

RCAT scores 27.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.09) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (91/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (24.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.8
Fundamental Score27.1
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
31.8
6 Month
35.6
Primary
1 Year
37.4

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
26.5
SHAP
+0.8
Factors
-0.2
Conviction
+2.5
Divergence
-1.8
Final
27.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)72.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-10.0% to -2.4%
Medium-term
-13.9% to -2.8%
Long-term
-17.8% to -3.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+56.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+79.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality+0.550
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P1
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P5
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-1.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 43th percentileP43
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (38.9) + 9% ML (42.1) + SHAP(+0.8) = 40.0
Factor quality: -0.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 24.7%. Max drawdown 34% (-10.4 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.2pt (83% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.5pt (conviction=91)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -13 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-319.5%) exceeds net margin (-435.7%) by 116pp — possible write-downFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #255 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RCAT27.8N/A-59.2%-435.7%$1.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Red Cat Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various products, services, and solutions to the drone industry. It offers commercial and government unmanned aerial vehicle technology for reconnaissance, public safety, and inspection applications. The company also provides First Person View (FPV) video goggles; and software and hardware solutions that enable drones to complete inspection services in locations where global positioning systems are not available. In addition, it is involved in the sales of FPV drones and equipment primarily to the consumer marketplace. Red Cat Holdings, Inc.is based in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

CEO
Jeffrey Thompson
Employees
115
Beta
1.35
Industry
Computer Hardware
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.1%
High: $18.02
From 52W Low
+171.2%
Low: $4.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.20
Above
20-Day
$12.90
Below
50-Day
$11.70
Above
200-Day
$9.70
Above
60-Day Support
$6.79
60-Day Resistance
$18.02
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 89/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+28%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+18.36%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.74x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$10M$3M$2M$1M
Gross Profit$637,502$375,054$-850,410$-676,834
Operating Income$-16M$-13M$-12M$-9M
Net Income$-16M$-13M$-23M$-17M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.16$-0.15$-0.27$-0.24
Gross Margin6.6%11.7%-52.2%-50.7%
Operating Margin-166.0%-392.9%-765.7%-707.4%
Net Margin-166.0%-412.6%-1418.9%-1239.9%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 90/100Score impact: -33.8pt

Volume
100
10.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$135M/day
Float
92
79M shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.1B
Range
100
293% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.2%
Outstanding Shares
90M
Bid-Ask Spread
293.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.