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39

TRIP

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Tripadvisor, Inc.

Conservative #906Aggressive #577Moderate RiskMixed 47
$10.28+1.98%
Day High$10.49
Day Low$10.12
Volume3.3M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $952W High $20
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
31.1
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
3.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
700.0%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.92

Why This Score

TRIP scores 38.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (14.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.92) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. TRIP's rank of #906 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.6
Fundamental Score33.2
ML Score40.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.6
6 Month
74.5
Primary
1 Year
78.4

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-512.5%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
51
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
34.6
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Final
38.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value64
Quality29
Growth73
Stability48
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)30.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.3% to +5.9%
Medium-term
+2.6% to +9.5%
Long-term
+3.9% to +13.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 40

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score51.3/100
Target Upside+34.8%
Coverage56 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.1/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+9.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.78)
Relative Strength vs Sector-36.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.4)
Momentum Quality-0.193
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P45
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 33 relative to sector peers33/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 40th percentileP40
Blended score: 80% fundamental (33) + 20% ML (40) = 34.634.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 45% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-512.5%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #84 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TRIP38.631.13.1%2.1%$1.3B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

TripAdvisor, Inc. operates as an online travel company. It operates in two segments, Hotels, Media & Platform; and Experiences & Dining. The company operates TripAdvisor-branded websites, including tripadvisor.com in the United States; and localized versions of the website in 40 markets and 20 languages. It also manages and operates other travel media brands that provide users the comprehensive travel-planning and trip-taking resources in the travel industry, such as bokun.io, cruisecritic.com, flipkey.com, thefork.com, helloreco.com, holidaylettings.co.uk, holidaywatchdog.com, housetrip.com, jetsetter.com, niumba.com, seatguru.com, singleplatform.com, vacationhomerentals.com, and viator.com. In addition, the company provides information and services for consumers to research and book restaurants reservation in travel destinations; and vacation and short-term rental properties, including full home, condominiums, villas, beach properties, cabins, and cottages. As of December 31, 2020, it featured 1 billion reviews and opinions on 1 billion hotels and other accommodations, restaurants, experiences, airlines, and cruises. TripAdvisor, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.

CEO
Matthew Goldberg
Employees
2,770
Beta
0.93
Industry
Travel Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
31.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-49%
High: $20.16
From 52W Low
+8.7%
Low: $9.46
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.30
Below
20-Day
$11.50
Below
50-Day
$13.10
Below
200-Day
$15.30
Below
60-Day Support
$9.46
60-Day Resistance
$15.73
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 37/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-32.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.71%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.74x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
51
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$411M$553M$529M$398M
Gross Profit$243M$512M$487M$371M
Operating Income$-34M$70M$59M$-15M
Net Income$-38M$53M$36M$-11M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.33$0.43$0.28$-0.08
Gross Margin59.1%92.6%92.1%93.2%
Operating Margin-8.3%12.7%11.2%-3.8%
Net Margin-9.2%9.6%6.8%-2.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median (P/E 31.1)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -17.5pt

Volume
100
2.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
85
$28M/day
Float
100
106M shares
Mkt Cap
44
$1.3B
Range
100
113% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.8%
Outstanding Shares
117M
Bid-Ask Spread
113.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.