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33

OXLC

🏦 Financial Services

Oxford Lane Capital Corp.

Conservative #1026Aggressive #1416Moderate RiskHigh 96
$8.96-0.22%
Day High$9.08
Day Low$8.75
Volume2.4M
Mkt Cap$870M
52W Low $952W High $25
Market Cap
$892M
P/E Ratio
213.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-65.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-79.4%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

OXLC scores 33.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (96/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 213.2x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.2
Fundamental Score39.6
ML Score9.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
36.4
6 Month
40.7
Primary
1 Year
42.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-21653.6%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
30
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
71
Grade B
Base
31.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.8
Divergence
-2.3
Final
33.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)20.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)33.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-20.6% to -11.0%
Medium-term
-26.9% to -13.3%
Long-term
-33.2% to -15.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 9

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score30.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-10.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.77)
Relative Strength vs Sector-55.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.261
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P2
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P1
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 46th percentileP46
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (44.1) + 9% ML (46.1) + SHAP(+3.1) = 47.4
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 6.4%. Stability bonus of +9.1 points. Max drawdown 44% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -47% (-8.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.1pt (conviction=96)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-21653.6%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #271 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OXLC33.2213.2-65.7%0.8%$892M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 1Sell: 1

Company Overviewvia FMP

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated. Oxford Lane Capital Corp was formed on June 9, 2010 and is domiciled in the United States.

CEO
Jonathan H. Cohen
Beta
0.72
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
16.1
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-64.8%
High: $25.45
From 52W Low
+2.9%
Low: $8.71
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.50
Below
20-Day
$10.60
Below
50-Day
$12.90
Below
200-Day
$16.80
Below
60-Day Support
$8.71
60-Day Resistance
$15.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 0/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-46.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-15.65%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.31x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2024Q4 2024
Revenue$226M$224M$204M$158M
Gross Profit$157M$0$0$0
Operating Income$48M$4M$83M$136M
Net Income$21M$-17M$66M$120M
EPS (Diluted)$0.24$-0.04$0.26$0.55
Gross Margin69.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Operating Margin21.3%1.6%40.8%86.5%
Net Margin9.3%-7.7%32.1%76.1%

Why This Stock

Financial Services

Tradability FilterGrade B — 71/100Score impact: +0.1pt

Volume
100
1.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
70
$15M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
38
$892M
Range
100
192% spread
Composite Liquidity Score71/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$30.80$42.6532.3%Moderate
2022$24.15$42.1054.2%Wide
2023$22.05$31.3534.8%Moderate
2024$24.60$28.9016.1%Narrow
2025$12.88$25.9567.3%Wide
3-Year Range
83.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.21x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
192.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.