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17

OUST

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Ouster, Inc.

Conservative #1338Aggressive #1090High RiskHigh 83
$19.40-2.01%
Day High$20.20
Day Low$19.09
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $652W High $42
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
33.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
74.1%
Profit Margin
-64.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

OUST scores 17.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (83/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (128%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (35.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OUST would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score17.1
Fundamental Score28.2
ML Score9.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
18.7
6 Month
20.9
Primary
1 Year
22.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
86
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
15.4
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-0.4
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-0.6
Final
17.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)36.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-27.3% to -15.4%
Medium-term
-36.4% to -20.4%
Long-term
-46.3% to -24.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 9

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+105.1%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score85.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+1.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.4%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+161.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.27)
Relative Strength vs Sector+123.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.6)
Momentum Quality+0.717
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P7
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 34th percentileP34
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (43.0) + 9% ML (33.3) + SHAP(+1.2) = 43.3โ€”
Factor quality: -0.4pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.4pt (128% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.6pt (conviction=83)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 35.1%. Max drawdown 44% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (69.2%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #278 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OUST17.1N/A33.4%-64.2%$1.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM83.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS79.819.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
ASML77.648.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
RMBS75.448.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.89.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.274.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
DBX73.813.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.0B
AAPL72.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
TER72.190.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average47.249.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ouster, Inc. designs and manufactures high-resolution digital lidar sensors and enabling software that offers 3D vision to machinery, vehicles, robots, and fixed infrastructure assets. Its product portfolio includes OS, a scanning sensor and DF, a true solid-state flash sensor. The company is based in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Charles Angus Pacala
Employees
292
Beta
2.90
Industry
Hardware, Equipment & Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-53.4%
High: $41.65
From 52W Low
+206%
Low: $6.34
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.80
Above
20-Day
$19.40
Below
50-Day
$22.30
Below
200-Day
$24.30
Below
60-Day Support
$17.28
60-Day Resistance
$30.2
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-20.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.56%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.65x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
19
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$40M$35M$33M$30M
Gross Profit$17M$16M$13M$13M
Operating Income$-24M$-27M$-24M$-26M
Net Income$-22M$-21M$-22M$-24M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.37$-0.38$-0.42$-0.48
Gross Margin42.1%45.2%41.3%43.8%
Operating Margin-61.4%-76.5%-73.0%-85.1%
Net Margin-55.0%-58.8%-67.5%-78.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 33.4%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 85/100Score impact: -12.7pt

Volume
100
1.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
87
$31M/day
Float
83
58M shares
Mkt Cap
42
$1.1B
Range
100
557% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$50.60$149.9099.1%Wide
2022$7.60$55.40151.7%Wide
2023$3.21$19.20142.7%Wide
2024$4.65$16.88113.6%Wide
2025$6.34$41.65147.2%Wide
3-Year Range
171.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
95.9%
Outstanding Shares
60M
Bid-Ask Spread
557.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.