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NTRA

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Natera, Inc.

Conservative #729Aggressive #37Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 16pt
$208.04-3.73%
Day High$212.99
Day Low$196.22
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$29.0B
52W Low $12552W High $256
Market Cap
$29.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
56.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
56.2%
Profit Margin
-14.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.15

Why This Score

NTRA scores 46.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (33%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.1
Fundamental Score42.8
ML Score69.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.2
6 Month
80.7
Primary
1 Year
85.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
45.1
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.5
Divergence
-1.7
Final
46.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth100
Stability75
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+11.6% to +18.1%
Medium-term
+17.0% to +26.6%
Long-term
+25.1% to +38.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 69

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.2/100
Target Upside+20.5%
Coverage27 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.69)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.4)
Momentum Quality+0.258
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P87
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P61
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (69) = 48.048.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -1.7pt (ML 26pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH (3.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #106 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NTRA46.1N/A56.7%-14.6%$29.6B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

CEO
Steven Leonard Chapman
Employees
4,424
Beta
1.63
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-18.8%
High: $256.36
From 52W Low
+65.9%
Low: $125.38
Moving Averages
10-Day
$211.60
Below
20-Day
$212.70
Below
50-Day
$226.70
Below
200-Day
$188.00
Above
60-Day Support
$194.02
60-Day Resistance
$256.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 77/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.2%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$178.71
Stop Entry Now Target
$287.72
Entry Zone
$224.43 โ€“ $233.50
SMA50 pullback zone ($224.43โ€“$233.5)
Exit Target
$279.34
52-week high / +22% target ($279.34)
Stop Level
$184.24
Below SMA200 ($184.24)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.13Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$666M$592M$547M$502M
Gross Profit$447M$384M$347M$317M
Operating Income$-23M$-98M$-110M$-79M
Net Income$47M$-88M$-101M$-67M
EPS (Diluted)$0.35$-0.64$-0.74$-0.50
Gross Margin67.1%64.9%63.5%63.2%
Operating Margin-3.4%-16.5%-20.2%-15.8%
Net Margin7.1%-14.8%-18.5%-13.3%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 56.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 94/100Score impact: -35.3pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$268M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
89
$29.6B
Range
100
104% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$82.63$129.0943.9%Wide
2022$26.10$92.07111.6%Wide
2023$35.02$63.9458.4%Wide
2024$58.53$175.63100%Wide
2025$125.38$246.9065.3%Wide
3-Year Range
150.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
104.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.