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NTNX

💻 Technology

Nutanix, Inc.

Conservative #326Aggressive #109Moderate RiskLow 38ML↑ 31pt
$38.44+1.53%
Day High$38.71
Day Low$36.28
Volume6.9M
Mkt Cap$10.4B
52W Low $3552W High $83
Market Cap
$11.3B
P/E Ratio
54.9
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
18.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
251.0%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

NTNX scores 58.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -2.13) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (94/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 54.9x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (13.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.9
Fundamental Score50.4
ML Score94.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.7
6 Month
91.3
Primary
1 Year
96.1

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
59.2
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-4.3
Final
58.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

61AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth90
Stability90
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)51.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)29.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.7% to +13.3%
Medium-term
+11.2% to +19.6%
Long-term
+18.7% to +30.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 94

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.9/100
Target Upside+65.4%
Coverage31 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-49.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality-0.234
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P69
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P21
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 67 relative to sector peers67/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 98th percentileP98
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (67.3) + 9% ML (95.5) + SHAP(+3.0) = 72.8—
Factor quality: +2.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.0%. Max drawdown 49% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -46% (-8.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($11.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=38)—
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (ML 31pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (251%) far exceeds revenue growth (18.1%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 592.6% (original: 918.6%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #77 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NTNX58.954.918.1%7.4%$11.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy31 analysts
Buy: 21Hold: 10
Price Target
$62consensus
Low $53Median $57High $90
+61.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Nutanix, Inc. provides an enterprise cloud platform in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. The company offers Acropolis converges virtualization, enterprise storage services, and networking visualization and security services; Acropolis Hypervisor, an enterprise-grade virtualization solution; Nutanix Karbon for automated deployment and management of Kubernetes clusters to simplify the provisioning, operations, and lifecycle management of cloud-native environments; and Nutanix Clusters solution. It also offers Prism Pro; Nutanix Beam, a cloud governance; and Nutanix Calm, an application marketplace, which provides automation services that streamline application lifecycle management and deliver powerful hybrid cloud orchestration. In addition, the company provides Nutanix Files, an enterprise-grade NFS and SMB files services; Nutanix Objects, a S3-compatible object services; Nutanix Era, a database automation and database-as-a-service solution; and Nutanix Frame, a desktop-as-a-service product to deliver virtual apps or desktops to users from multiple public cloud environments and/or an enterprises private cloud datacenter. Further, it offers products support, and consulting and implementation services. It serves customers in a range of industries, including automotive, consumer goods, education, energy, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, media, public sector, retail, technology, and telecommunications, as well as service providers. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Rajiv Ramaswami
Employees
7,150
Beta
0.48
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-53.9%
High: $83.36
From 52W Low
+8.6%
Low: $35.39
Moving Averages
10-Day
$40.10
Below
20-Day
$40.00
Below
50-Day
$45.70
Below
200-Day
$64.60
Below
60-Day Support
$35.39
60-Day Resistance
$54.15
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-40.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-9.62%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
72
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2026Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$723M$671M$653M$639M
Gross Profit$632M$583M$569M$556M
Operating Income$84M$49M$31M$49M
Net Income$103M$62M$39M$63M
EPS (Diluted)$0.36$0.21$0.13$0.22
Gross Margin87.4%87.0%87.2%87.0%
Operating Margin11.7%7.3%4.8%7.6%
Net Margin14.3%9.3%5.9%9.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 18.1%Earnings quality grade C

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -10.2pt

Volume
100
4.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$183M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
80
$11.3B
Range
100
136% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$25.15$44.5055.6%Wide
2022$13.44$33.7386%Wide
2023$23.35$47.8368.8%Wide
2024$43.35$75.8054.5%Wide
2025$46.12$83.3657.5%Wide
3-Year Range
112.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
136.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.