Back to Dashboard
63

CHKP

💻 Technology

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.

Conservative #239Aggressive #450Low RiskHigh 83
$152.84+0.26%
Day High$153.74
Day Low$150.38
Volume2.4M
Mkt Cap$16.4B
52W Low $15052W High $234
Market Cap
$17.1B
P/E Ratio
16.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
6.3%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
25.0%
Profit Margin
38.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.68

Why This Score

CHKP scores 63.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 36.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 38.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (83/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. CHKP ranks #239 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.1
Fundamental Score61.8
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.1
6 Month
80.5
Primary
1 Year
84.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
34
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
59.1
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.2
Final
63.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.5% to +5.0%
Medium-term
+1.4% to +8.2%
Long-term
+2.3% to +11.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.7/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage62 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score34.3/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-10.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector-25.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality-0.166
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
30%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P37
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P64
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P74
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (72.6) + 9% ML (85.9) + SHAP(+2.4) = 76.2
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.3 points. Max drawdown 25% (-6.8 pts). Price momentum -22% (-3.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($17.1B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.6pt (conviction=83)
Risk Factors
Country risk: Israel -6.5pt [structural: -2pt, macro: -4.5pt] (Active regional conflict, but strong legal system)Country
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-24.4%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 12.4% (original: 14.2%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #59 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CHKP63.116.16.3%38.8%$17.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold62 analysts
Buy: 28Hold: 30Sell: 4
Price Target
$208consensus
Low $180Median $210High $240
+36.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. The company offers a portfolio of network security, endpoint security, data security, and management solutions. It provides Check Point Infinity Architecture, a cyber security architecture that protects against 5th and 6th generation cyber-attacks across various networks, endpoint, cloud, workloads, Internet of Things, and mobile. The company also offers security gateways and software platforms that support small and medium sized business (SMB) to large enterprise data center and telco-grade environments; and threat prevention technologies and zero-day protections. In addition, the company provides cloud network security, security and posture management, cloud workload protection, and cloud web application protection for web applications and APIs; and Check Point Harmony that delivers endpoint and secure connectivity for remote user access. Further, the company provides technical customer support programs and plans; professional services in implementing, upgrading, and optimizing Check Point products comprising design planning and security implementation; and certification and educational training services on Check Point products. It sells its products through multiple distribution channels, including distributors, resellers, system integrators, original equipment manufacturers, and managed security service providers. Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

CEO
Nadav Zafrir
Employees
6,669
Beta
0.60
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
25.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34.8%
High: $234.36
From 52W Low
+1.8%
Low: $150.17
Moving Averages
10-Day
$162.00
Below
20-Day
$170.40
Below
50-Day
$180.10
Below
200-Day
$198.10
Below
60-Day Support
$150.17
60-Day Resistance
$199.9
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.48%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.71x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$745M$678M$665M$638M
Gross Profit$634M$578M$562M$554M
Operating Income$233M$199M$204M$196M
Net Income$305M$359M$203M$191M
EPS (Diluted)$2.81$3.28$1.84$1.71
Gross Margin85.1%85.3%84.5%86.8%
Operating Margin31.3%29.4%30.6%30.7%
Net Margin40.9%52.9%30.5%29.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 16.1Profit margin 38.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -0.2pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$190M/day
Float
93
82M shares
Mkt Cap
83
$17.1B
Range
86
53% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 24/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$107.85$128.3917.4%Narrow
2022$107.54$149.6232.7%Moderate
2023$117.18$154.1227.2%Moderate
2024$145.75$210.7036.4%Wide
2025$178.64$234.3627%Moderate
3-Year Range
66.7%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.6%
Outstanding Shares
107M
Bid-Ask Spread
53.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.