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NMFCZ

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

New Mountain Finance Corporation 8.250% Notes due 2028

Conservative #768Aggressive #1361Low Risk
$25.25+0.12%
Day High$25.30
Day Low$25.15
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$2.5B
52W Low $2552W High $26
Market Cap
$2.6B
P/E Ratio
12.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-3.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-16.2%
Profit Margin
18.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.36

Why This Score

NMFCZ scores 44.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (1.7% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (76/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -30.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, NMFCZ would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.8
Fundamental Score70.4
ML Score75.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.3
6 Month
89.8
Primary
1 Year
94.5

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.017 vol with only -3.6% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
40.8
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Final
44.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value86
Quality44
Growth24
Stability93
Investment63

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.7% to +5.9%
Medium-term
-0.7% to +9.2%
Long-term
-0.5% to +12.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 75

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.78)
Relative Strength vs Sector-1.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.4)
Momentum Quality+0.071
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
45%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P13
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P66
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P78
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 75th percentileP75
Blended score: 80% fundamental (70) + 20% ML (75) = 71.371.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 2% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.017 vol with only -3.6% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag
Value trap penalty: -0.5ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #220 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NMFCZ44.812.2-3.6%18.0%$2.6B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

New Mountain Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: NMFC), a business development company is a private equity / buyouts and loan fund specializes in directly investing and lending to middle market companies in defensive growth industries. The fund prefers investing in buyout and middle market companies. It also makes investments in debt securities at all levels of the capital structure including first and second lien debt, unsecured notes and mezzanine securities. In some cases, its investments may also include equity interests. It targets energy, specialty chemicals and materials, trading companies and distributors, commercial printing, diversified support services, education services, environmental and facilities services, office services and supplies, media, distributors, health care services, health care facilities, application software, business services, systems software, federal services, distribution and logistics, interactive home entertainment, telecommunication services, hydroelectric power generation, electric power generation by fossil fuels, electric power generation by nuclear fuels, health care technology, and security and alarm services. The fund seeks to invest in United States of America. It seeks to invest between $10 million and $50 million per transaction. The firm invests through both primary originations and open-market secondary purchases. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $200 million and target investments up to a $125 million hold size. The fund seeks a majority stake in its portfolio companies.

CEO
John R. Kline
Employees
0
Beta
0.62
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.2%
High: $25.82
From 52W Low
+1%
Low: $25.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.20
Above
20-Day
$25.20
Above
50-Day
$25.40
Below
200-Day
$25.40
Below
60-Day Support
$25.06
60-Day Resistance
$25.67
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 47/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.09%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
20
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$23.58
Stop Entry Now Target
$31.21
Entry Zone
$24.89 โ€“ $25.91
Near SMA200 base ($24.89โ€“$25.91)
Exit Target
$30.30
Prior high / breakout target ($30.3)
Stop Level
$24.31
60-day low ($24.31)
Risk / Reward:1 : 4.5Favorable

Stage 1 base-building โ€” stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$69M$81M$97M$123M
Gross Profit$56M$67M$8M$25M
Operating Income$3M$44M$8M$24M
Net Income$-27M$12M$8M$23M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.26$0.11$0.07$0.22
Gross Margin81.0%83.4%8.2%20.0%
Operating Margin4.4%54.9%8.2%19.0%
Net Margin-38.8%15.1%8.0%19.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.2Profit margin 18.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.2)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -22.7pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
12K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$307K/day
Float
0
79M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$2.6B
Range
0
3% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumerange bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 100/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 2 of the last 2 years (3-year range: 5.2%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$24.95$26.295.2%Narrow
2025$25.01$26.064.1%Narrow
3-Year Range
5.2%
Narrow Years
2 / 2
Sideways Penalty
-5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.34x dampening
slight revenue declinestagnation flagrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.8%
Outstanding Shares
103M
Bid-Ask Spread
3.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.