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17

NEGG

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Newegg Commerce, Inc.

Conservative #1320Aggressive #715High Risk
$44.46-6.85%
Day High$47.06
Day Low$44.23
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$932M
52W Low $352W High $138
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-17.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
26.6%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.66

Why This Score

NEGG scores 17.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (99/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (483%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (106.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -13.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, NEGG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score17.0
Fundamental Score24.3
ML Score33.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
39.6
6 Month
44.2
Primary
1 Year
46.5

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
0.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
45
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
13.0
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+2.6
Final
17.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

40AVG
Value50
Quality5
Growth42
Stability32
Investment73

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)54.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-10.9% to -3.0%
Medium-term
-15.0% to -3.5%
Long-term
-19.2% to -3.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 33

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside-84.3%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+4.8%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+1.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+471.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.02)
Relative Strength vs Sector+481.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.5)
Momentum Quality+2.655
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-1.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 24 relative to sector peers24/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 33th percentileP33
Blended score: 80% fundamental (24) + 20% ML (33) = 26.026.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 1.1%; Drawdown 45% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 483% โ†’ -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #112 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NEGG17.0N/A-17.5%-1.7%$1.1B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Newegg Commerce, Inc. operates as an electronics-focused e-retailer in North America. The company offers desktops, laptops, gaming laptops, peripherals, and accessories; CPU/processors, graphic cards, motherboards, storage devices, and computer accessories; home video, home audio, headphones, pro audio/video, cellphones, wearables, and digital cameras; Xbox, Playstation, legacy gaming, and gaming titles; and home networking, commercial networking, server and components, and smart home products. It also provides display and printing, office technology furniture, office supplies, and mailing and inventory supplies; software, digital downloads, warranty and services, 3rd party gift cards, and entertainment products; car electronics, marine and aviation, motorcycles and ATV, performance parts, tools and equipment, and wheels and tires; home improvement tools, home appliances, kitchen utensils, outdoor and garden furniture, pet supplies, and generators; and fitness, sports, and health and beauty supplies. The company operates B2C platforms, including Newegg.com, Newegg.ca, and Newegg Global, as well as mobile apps; and B2B platforms comprising NeweggBusiness.com. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in City of Industry, California. Newegg Commerce, Inc. is a subsidiary of Hangzhou Liaison Interactive Information Technology Co., Ltd.

CEO
Anthony K. Chow
Employees
762
Beta
4.34
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-67.7%
High: $137.84
From 52W Low
+1239.2%
Low: $3.32
Moving Averages
10-Day
$48.70
Below
20-Day
$49.60
Below
50-Day
$51.50
Below
200-Day
$48.00
Below
60-Day Support
$41.01
60-Day Resistance
$79.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 31/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-7.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+43.77%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.49x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Revenue$348M$348M$309M$309M
Gross Profit$40M$40M$34M$34M
Operating Income$-4M$-4M$-11M$-11M
Net Income$-2M$-2M$-9M$-9M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.11$-0.11$-0.47$-0.47
Gross Margin11.5%11.5%11.1%11.1%
Operating Margin-1.1%-1.1%-3.5%-3.5%
Net Margin-0.6%-0.6%-3.0%-3.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 45/100Score impact: -56.4pt

Volume
22
115K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
48
19M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.1B
Range
100
4052% spread
Composite Liquidity Score45/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$120.20$1581.40171.7%Wide
2022$23.20$218.80161.7%Wide
2023$10.32$61.80142.8%Wide
2024$7.83$26.40108.5%Wide
2025$3.32$137.84190.6%Wide
3-Year Range
190.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
92.5%
Outstanding Shares
21M
Bid-Ask Spread
4052.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.