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68

MSFT

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Microsoft Corporation

Conservative #138Aggressive #359Low RiskHigh 93
$400.60+2.98%
Day High$401.47
Day Low$390.20
Volume43.3M
Mkt Cap$3.0T
52W Low $34552W High $555
Market Cap
$2.9T
P/E Ratio
24.8
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
14.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
15.5%
Profit Margin
39.0%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
0.15

Why This Score

MSFT scores 67.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 33.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 39.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Large-cap ($2950B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • High conviction (93/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. MSFT ranks #138 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score67.8
Fundamental Score65.3
ML Score58.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.8
6 Month
76.8
Primary
1 Year
80.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
63.8
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.5
Final
67.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)83.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 58

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.9/100
Target Upside+50.8%
Coverage78 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+22.4%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.09)
Relative Strength vs Sector-1.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.014
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P62
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P48
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (72.6) + 9% ML (80.9) + SHAP(+3.1) = 76.5โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.5%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.6 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +5.0 points ($2949.7B market cap)+5.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.8pt (conviction=93)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-34.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 16.8% (original: 21.5%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #31 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MSFT67.824.814.9%39.0%$2.9T
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business; Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn; and Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based and on-premises business solutions for organizations and enterprise divisions. The Intelligent Cloud segment licenses SQL, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and related Client Access Licenses; GitHub that provides a collaboration platform and code hosting service for developers; Nuance provides healthcare and enterprise AI solutions; and Azure, a cloud platform. It also offers enterprise support, Microsoft consulting, and nuance professional services to assist customers in developing, deploying, and managing Microsoft server and desktop solutions; and training and certification on Microsoft products. The More Personal Computing segment provides Windows original equipment manufacturer (OEM) licensing and other non-volume licensing of the Windows operating system; Windows Commercial, such as volume licensing of the Windows operating system, Windows cloud services, and other Windows commercial offerings; patent licensing; and Windows Internet of Things. It also offers Surface, PC accessories, PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, and other devices; Gaming, including Xbox hardware, and Xbox content and services; video games and third-party video game royalties; and Search, including Bing and Microsoft advertising. The company sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and directly through digital marketplaces, online stores, and retail stores. Microsoft Corporation was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

CEO
Satya Nadella
Employees
228,000
Beta
1.08
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-27.9%
High: $555.45
From 52W Low
+16.2%
Low: $344.79
Moving Averages
10-Day
$397.40
Above
20-Day
$409.50
Below
50-Day
$448.50
Below
200-Day
$486.20
Below
60-Day Support
$381.71
60-Day Resistance
$493.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 17/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-17.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.99%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.06x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
33
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$81.3B$77.7B$76.4B$70.1B
Gross Profit$55.3B$53.6B$52.4B$48.1B
Operating Income$38.3B$38.0B$34.3B$32.0B
Net Income$38.5B$27.7B$27.2B$25.8B
EPS (Diluted)$5.16$3.72$3.65$3.46
Gross Margin68.0%69.0%68.6%68.7%
Operating Margin47.1%48.9%44.9%45.7%
Net Margin47.3%35.7%35.6%36.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 24.8Revenue growth 14.9%Profit margin 39.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 99/100Score impact: +13.1pt

Volume
100
31.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$12.0B/day
Float
100
7.4B shares
Mkt Cap
100
$2.9T
Range
91
61% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.9%
Outstanding Shares
7.4B
Bid-Ask Spread
61.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.