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39

MGPI

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

MGP Ingredients, Inc.

Conservative #890Aggressive #1343Low RiskMLโ†‘ 26pt
$19.00-3.94%
Day High$19.59
Day Low$18.48
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$405M
52W Low $1852W High $35
Market Cap
$552M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-15.9%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-67.7%
Profit Margin
-2.6%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.33

Why This Score

MGPI scores 39.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score39.5
Fundamental Score41.9
ML Score39.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.4
6 Month
74.2
Primary
1 Year
78.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (934.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
31
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
55
Grade C
Base
36.3
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+1.4
Conviction
-0.1
Final
39.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

44AVG
Value50
Quality19
Growth4
Stability79
Investment68

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)35.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)58.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +4.3%
Medium-term
-2.8% to +6.7%
Long-term
-3.6% to +9.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 39

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score31.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector-29.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (3.0)
Momentum Quality-0.153
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
40%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P2
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.9ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 42 relative to sector peers42/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 39th percentileP39
Blended score: 80% fundamental (42) + 20% ML (39) = 41.341.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 24% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (934.9%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #45 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MGPI39.5N/A-15.9%-2.6%$552M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. It operates through three segments: Distillery Products; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Products segment provides food grade alcohol for beverage applications that include bourbon and rye whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin; and food-grade industrial alcohol, which is used as an ingredient in foods, personal care products, cleaning solutions, pharmaceuticals, and various other products. This segment also provides fuel-grade alcohol for blending with gasoline; distillers feed and related co-products, such as distillers feed and corn oil; and warehouse services, including barrel put away, storage, and retrieval services, as well as blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides ultra-premium, premium, mid, and value branded distilled spirits. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications under the Fibersym, Resistant Starch, and FiberRite RW Resistant Starch names; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. The company sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Thailand, Mexico, and Canada. MGP Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

CEO
Brandon Gall
Employees
660
Beta
0.41
Industry
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
13.1
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-46.5%
High: $35.49
From 52W Low
+2.8%
Low: $18.48
Moving Averages
10-Day
$23.90
Below
20-Day
$24.80
Below
50-Day
$24.70
Below
200-Day
$26.90
Below
60-Day Support
$18.48
60-Day Resistance
$26.62
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 3/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-29.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.01%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.37x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$138M$131M$145M$122M
Gross Profit$48M$49M$58M$43M
Operating Income$-135M$21M$20M$-747,000
Net Income$-135M$15M$14M$-3M
EPS (Diluted)$-6.22$0.71$0.67$-0.14
Gross Margin34.9%37.8%40.1%35.6%
Operating Margin-97.7%16.1%14.0%-0.6%
Net Margin-97.3%11.8%9.9%-2.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer Defensive

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 55/100Score impact: -3.1pt

Volume
63
335K avg/day
Dollar Vol
57
$8M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
31
$552M
Range
92
64% spread
Composite Liquidity Score55/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$58.00$89.5042.7%Wide
2022$73.02$125.7453%Wide
2023$82.60$124.9640.8%Wide
2024$38.24$101.6990.7%Wide
2025$21.67$40.2660%Wide
3-Year Range
140.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.21x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
64.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.