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HELE

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Helen of Troy Limited

Conservative #1339Aggressive #1317High RiskMLโ†‘ 33pt
$17.64-0.56%
Day High$17.72
Day Low$16.84
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$407M
52W Low $1652W High $58
Market Cap
$427M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-4.9%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-26.6%
Profit Margin
-44.0%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
1.11

Why This Score

HELE scores 14.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (17.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.11) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score14.5
Fundamental Score17.4
ML Score13.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
61.8
6 Month
69.1
Primary
1 Year
72.7

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
13.8
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
-1.4
Final
14.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

35AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth15
Stability35
Investment75

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)36.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)27.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.7% to +6.0%
Medium-term
-0.6% to +9.6%
Long-term
-0.5% to +13.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 13

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.8/100
Target Upside+24.1%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score39.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.7%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-39.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.41)
Relative Strength vs Sector-77.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality-0.210
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
47%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P7
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 17 relative to sector peers17/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 13th percentileP13
Blended score: 80% fundamental (17) + 20% ML (13) = 16.516.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 69% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -1.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -0.7ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #53 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HELE14.5N/A-4.9%-44.0%$427M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Helen of Troy Limited provides various consumer products in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Home & Outdoor, Health & Wellness, and Beauty. The Home & Outdoor segment offers food preparation tools and gadgets, storage containers, and organization products; coffee makers, grinders, manual pour overs, and tea kettles; household cleaning products, shower organization, and bathroom accessories; feeding and drinking products, child seating products, cleaning tools, and nursery accessories; insulated water bottles, hydration packs, drinkware, mugs, food containers, lunch containers, insulated totes, soft coolers, and accessories; and technical and outdoor sports packs, travel packs, luggage, daypacks, and everyday packs. The Health & Wellness segment provides thermometers, blood pressure monitors, pulse oximeters, nasal aspirators, and humidifiers; faucet mount water-filtration systems and pitcher-based water filtration systems; and air purifiers, heaters, fans, and humidifiers. The Beauty segment offers grooming brushes, tools, and decorative hair accessories; and shampoos, liquid hair styling, and treatment and conditioning products, as well as hair appliances. The company sells its products through mass merchandisers, drugstore chains, warehouse clubs, home improvement stores, grocery and specialty stores, beauty supply and e-commerce retailers, wholesalers, and various types of distributors, as well as directly to consumers under the OXO, Good Grips, Hydro Flask, Soft Works, OXO tot, OXO Brew, OXO Strive, OXO Outdoor, Osprey, PUR, Honeywell, Braun, Vicks, Drybar, Hot Tools, Revlon, and Bed Head brands. Helen of Troy Limited was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.

CEO
George Scott Uzzell
Employees
1,883
Beta
0.82
Industry
Household & Personal Products
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
41.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-69.7%
High: $58.13
From 52W Low
+8.8%
Low: $16.22
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.80
Below
20-Day
$17.80
Below
50-Day
$19.00
Below
200-Day
$22.50
Below
60-Day Support
$16.22
60-Day Resistance
$22.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-21.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-25.16%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.67x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$513M$432M$372M$486M
Gross Profit$240M$191M$175M$236M
Operating Income$-8M$-316M$-407M$2M
Net Income$-84M$-309M$-451M$51M
EPS (Diluted)$-3.65$-13.44$-19.65$2.22
Gross Margin46.9%44.2%47.1%48.6%
Operating Margin-1.6%-73.1%-109.5%0.4%
Net Margin-16.4%-71.5%-121.3%10.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 70/100Score impact: -20.6pt

Volume
96
889K avg/day
Dollar Vol
71
$15M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
20
$427M
Range
100
271% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA
small cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.1%
Outstanding Shares
23M
Bid-Ask Spread
271.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.