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LINC

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation

Conservative #949Aggressive #900Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 28pt
$36.24+4.98%
Day High$36.51
Day Low$34.54
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $1452W High $37
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
65.8
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
16.4%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-62.0%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
1.05

Why This Score

LINC scores 36.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 65.8x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (16.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.05) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-6.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.5
Fundamental Score43.7
ML Score24.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.8
6 Month
65.7
Primary
1 Year
69.2

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-226.2%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
59
Grade C
Base
34.8
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.2
Conviction
-0.6
Divergence
-0.7
Final
36.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

36AVG
Value21
Quality32
Growth36
Stability58
Investment31

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)31.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)53.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.6% to +6.1%
Medium-term
+3.3% to +10.3%
Long-term
+5.0% to +14.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 24

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.7/100
Target Upside-10.5%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.93)
Relative Strength vs Sector+48.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality+0.454
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P85
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P4
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 24th percentileP24
Blended score: 80% fundamental (44) + 20% ML (24) = 39.839.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 20pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-226.2%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #47 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LINC36.565.816.4%2.9%$1.1B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 5Sell: 3
Price Target
$37consensus
Low $35Median $38High $39
+2.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides various career-oriented post-secondary education services to high school graduates and working adults in the United States. The company operates in two segments: Transportation and Skilled Trades, and Healthcare and Other Professions. It offers associate's degree, and diploma and certificate programs in automotive technology; skilled trades programs, including electrical, heating and air conditioning repair, welding, computerized numerical control, and electrical and electronic systems technology; health science programs comprising nursing, dental and medical assistant, claim examiner, medical administrative assistant, etc.; hospitality services programs, such as culinary, therapeutic massage, cosmetology, and aesthetics; and information technology programs. The company operates 22 schools in 14 states under the Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln College of Technology, Lincoln Culinary Institute, Euphoria Institute of Beauty Arts and Sciences, and other brand names. As of December 31, 2021, it had 13,059 students enrolled at 22 campuses. The company was founded in 1946 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.

CEO
Scott Shaw
Employees
1,875
Beta
0.98
Industry
Education & Training Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
84.2
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.7%
High: $36.51
From 52W Low
+157%
Low: $14.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$32.40
Above
20-Day
$29.50
Above
50-Day
$26.90
Above
200-Day
$22.90
Above
60-Day Support
$21.03
60-Day Resistance
$36.51
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+58.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.69%
Rising
Volume Ratio
2.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
64
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone RSI overbought
$21.77
Stop Entry Now Target
$37.61
Entry Zone
$26.63 โ€“ $27.71
SMA50 pullback zone ($26.63โ€“$27.71)
Exit Target
$36.51
52-week high / +22% target ($36.51)
Stop Level
$22.44
Below SMA200 ($22.44)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.97Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$143M$141M$116M$118M
Gross Profit$89M$84M$70M$70M
Operating Income$17M$6M$3M$3M
Net Income$13M$4M$2M$2M
EPS (Diluted)$0.42$0.12$0.05$0.06
Gross Margin62.3%59.5%59.8%59.7%
Operating Margin11.8%4.5%2.5%2.9%
Net Margin8.9%2.7%1.3%1.7%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveRevenue growth 16.4%

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 59/100Score impact: -12.3pt

Volume
58
284K avg/day
Dollar Vol
59
$9M/day
Float
56
26M shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.1B
Range
100
136% spread
Composite Liquidity Score59/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$5.25$8.2043.9%Wide
2022$4.59$7.9553.6%Wide
2023$5.05$10.3568.8%Wide
2024$8.91$18.7471.1%Wide
2025$14.10$25.7658.5%Wide
3-Year Range
134.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
80.6%
Outstanding Shares
32M
Bid-Ask Spread
136.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.