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OTLY

πŸ›’ Consumer Defensive

Oatly Group AB

Conservative #1455Aggressive #1362Moderate Risk
$11.91-2.14%
Day High$12.05
Day Low$11.73
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$372M
52W Low $852W High $19
Market Cap
$367M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
4.7%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
24.4%
Profit Margin
-17.7%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
27.69

Why This Score

OTLY scores 0.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (15%) β€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (76/100) β€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 27.69) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OTLY would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score0.0
Fundamental Score21.0
ML Score9.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
37.0
6 Month
41.3
Primary
1 Year
43.5

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality β€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected β€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 27.7x β€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low dollar volume, low volume
Base
0.0
SHAP
+1.2
Final
0.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

38AVG
Value50
Quality1
Growth63
Stability45
Investment32

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)40.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-13.8% to -5.4%
Medium-term
-18.4% to -6.3%
Long-term
-23.1% to -7.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 9

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.7/100
Target Upside+31.5%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 β€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+45.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality+0.093
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P2
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 21 relative to sector peers21/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 9th percentileP9
Blended score: 80% fundamental (21) + 20% ML (9) = 18.618.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 39% β†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered β€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 27.7x β€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive β€” Rank #55 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OTLY0.0N/A4.7%-17.7%$367M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%β€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold18 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 9Sell: 1
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $14Median $15High $18
+29.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha latte, matcha latte, and mini oat drink in original and chocolate flavors; and cooking products, including Cooking Cream, in regular and organic, Crème Fraiche, Whipping Cream, Vanilla Custard and Spreads in a variety of flavors. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmâ, Sweden.

CEO
Jean-Christophe Flatin
Employees
1,468
Beta
1.97
Industry
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-36.8%
High: $18.84
From 52W Low
+44.4%
Low: $8.25
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.00
Below
20-Day
$11.70
Above
50-Day
$11.40
Above
200-Day
$13.50
Below
60-Day Support
$10.11
60-Day Resistance
$12.76
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 β€” DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+5.05%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.88x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
70
Confidence: 40%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
β€”
No entry β€” active downtrend
Exit Target
β€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
β€”
No stop β€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend β€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only β€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$234M$223M$208M$198M
Gross Profit$81M$66M$68M$62M
Operating Income$-10M$-17M$-22M$-19M
Net Income$-19M$-65M$-56M$-12M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.61$-2.20$-1.86$-0.42
Gross Margin34.5%29.8%32.5%31.6%
Operating Margin-4.3%-7.6%-10.6%-9.4%
Net Margin-8.2%-29.3%-26.9%-6.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade F β€” 0/100Score impact: -35.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor β€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
73K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$855K/day
Float
0
29M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$367M
Range
0
192% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low dollar volumelow volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$149.20$580.00118.2%Wide
2022$25.60$168.80147.3%Wide
2023$8.80$63.10151%Wide
2024$11.90$28.0080.7%Wide
2025$6.00$18.84103.4%Wide
3-Year Range
165.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.4%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
192.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.