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54

APEI

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

American Public Education, Inc.

Conservative #503Aggressive #314Low Risk
$45.82+0.42%
Day High$46.35
Day Low$44.95
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$829M
52W Low $1952W High $46
Market Cap
$826M
P/E Ratio
24.8
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
4.0%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
134.1%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.60

Why This Score

APEI scores 54.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (75/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.3
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score52.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.5
6 Month
76.6
Primary
1 Year
80.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
55
Grade C
Base
50.3
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Final
54.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

68AVG
Value66
Quality41
Growth74
Stability73
Investment85

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.5% to +10.7%
Medium-term
+9.2% to +17.2%
Long-term
+13.9% to +24.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 52

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.8/100
Target Upside+6.9%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+63.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.43)
Relative Strength vs Sector+101.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.940
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P42
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P38
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P65
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 52th percentileP52
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (52) = 55.355.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 15% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #26 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APEI54.324.84.0%4.9%$826M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing. It offers 130 degree programs and 111 certificate programs in various fields of study, including business administration, health science, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts, as well as national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security. The company also provides nursing-and health sciences-focused postsecondary education, diploma in practical nursing, an associate degree in nursing, and an associate degree in medical laboratory technology. American Public Education, Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia.

CEO
Angela K. Selden
Employees
2,493
Beta
1.72
Industry
Education & Training Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.4%
High: $46.48
From 52W Low
+144.1%
Low: $18.77
Moving Averages
10-Day
$44.60
Above
20-Day
$43.90
Above
50-Day
$41.30
Above
200-Day
$34.60
Above
60-Day Support
$33.94
60-Day Resistance
$46.48
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+32.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.91%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.16x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$32.89
Stop Entry Now Target
$52.42
Entry Zone
$40.89 โ€“ $42.54
SMA50 pullback zone ($40.89โ€“$42.54)
Exit Target
$50.89
52-week high / +22% target ($50.89)
Stop Level
$33.91
Below SMA200 ($33.91)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.18Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$163M$163M$165M$164M
Gross Profit$89M$84M$90M$92M
Operating Income$10M$7M$12M$22M
Net Income$6M$4M$9M$13M
EPS (Diluted)$0.30$-0.02$0.41$0.63
Gross Margin54.2%51.8%54.5%56.3%
Operating Margin5.9%4.3%7.4%13.1%
Net Margin3.4%2.8%5.4%7.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 24.8Valuation below sector median (P/E 24.8)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 55/100Score impact: -10.4pt

Volume
55
251K avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
36
$826M
Range
100
145% spread
Composite Liquidity Score55/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.11$39.1973.6%Wide
2022$7.83$24.73103.8%Wide
2023$3.76$13.74114.1%Wide
2024$9.65$23.8484.7%Wide
2025$18.77$39.8371.9%Wide
3-Year Range
165.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
145.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.