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SBUX

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Starbucks Corporation

Conservative #286Aggressive #683Low RiskMixed 42ML↑ 29pt
$97.93+1.47%
Day High$98.20
Day Low$95.90
Volume6.3M
Mkt Cap$111.6B
52W Low $7652W High $117
Market Cap
$106.9B
P/E Ratio
78.2
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
2.8%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-50.6%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

SBUX scores 60.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -3.29) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Large-cap ($107B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 78.2x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. SBUX's rank of #286 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.7
Fundamental Score56.6
ML Score57.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.1
6 Month
90.7
Primary
1 Year
95.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
59.5
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.5
Divergence
-2.8
Final
60.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth35
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)29.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.0% to +11.3%
Medium-term
+9.1% to +17.1%
Long-term
+13.9% to +24.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 57

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.2/100
Target Upside+8.7%
Coverage56 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-24.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.52)
Relative Strength vs Sector-17.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality-0.133
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P43
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P7
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P55
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 91th percentileP91
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.8) + 9% ML (88.3) + SHAP(+3.1) = 67.3—
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.5%. Max drawdown 18% (-4.2 pts). Price momentum -16% (-2.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($106.9B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.8pt (conviction=42)—
Divergence penalty: -2.8pt (ML 29pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #20 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SBUX60.778.22.8%5.0%$106.9B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy57 analysts
Buy: 29Hold: 25Sell: 3
Price Target
$103consensus
Low $90Median $103High $120
+5.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Brian R. Niccol
Employees
361,000
Beta
0.94
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.6%
High: $117.46
From 52W Low
+29.7%
Low: $75.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$96.30
Above
20-Day
$95.90
Above
50-Day
$91.80
Above
200-Day
$88.50
Above
60-Day Support
$81.97
60-Day Resistance
$104.82
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 33/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.78%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
33
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$9.9B$9.6B$9.5B$8.8B
Gross Profit$1.5B$2.2B$2.2B$1.8B
Operating Income$910M$948M$936M$601M
Net Income$293M$133M$558M$384M
EPS (Diluted)$0.26$0.12$0.49$0.34
Gross Margin15.6%23.1%22.8%21.1%
Operating Margin9.2%9.9%9.9%6.9%
Net Margin3.0%1.4%5.9%4.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalEarnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 99/100Score impact: +7.9pt

Volume
100
9.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$910M/day
Float
100
1.1B shares
Mkt Cap
100
$106.9B
Range
88
56% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 28/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$100.60$126.3222.7%Narrow
2022$68.39$117.8053.1%Wide
2023$89.21$115.4825.7%Moderate
2024$71.55$103.3236.3%Wide
2025$75.50$117.4643.5%Wide
3-Year Range
48.6%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.8%
Outstanding Shares
1.1B
Bid-Ask Spread
56.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.