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LPTH

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

LightPath Technologies, Inc.

Conservative #1043Aggressive #443Moderate Risk
$11.14-5.35%
Day High$11.61
Day Low$10.53
Volume2.6M
Mkt Cap$486M
52W Low $252W High $15
Market Cap
$480M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
17.3%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-85.7%
Profit Margin
-43.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.13

Why This Score

LPTH scores 32.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (93/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (405%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (26.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, LPTH would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.0
Fundamental Score38.6
ML Score42.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
29.8
6 Month
33.3
Primary
1 Year
35.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
80
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade Asmall cap
Base
28.1
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+2.8
Final
32.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

38AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth37
Stability70
Investment32

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.7% to -3.7%
Medium-term
-11.5% to -4.2%
Long-term
-14.4% to -4.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 42

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+33.1%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score79.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+4.1%
6M Momentum+1.2%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+289.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.28)
Relative Strength vs Sector+401.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+3.432
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P10
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 42th percentileP42
Blended score: 80% fundamental (39) + 20% ML (42) = 39.339.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.3%; Drawdown 15% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 405% โ†’ -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, SPEC_MICRO (6.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #240 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LPTH32.0N/A17.3%-43.5%$480M
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
LRCX73.948.323.7%29.1%$295.9B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Buy: 9
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $14Median $15High $16
+33.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

LightPath Technologies, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes optical components and assemblies. The company offers precision molded glass aspheric optics, molded and diamond-turned infrared aspheric lenses, and other optical components used to produce products that manipulate light. Its products are used in defense products, medical devices, laser aided industrial tools, automotive safety applications, barcode scanners, optical data storage, hybrid fiber coax datacom, telecommunications, machine vision and sensors, and other industries. The company sells its products directly to customers in North America, Europe, and Asia, as well as through distributors and catalogs in the United States and internationally. LightPath Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

CEO
Shmuel Rubin
Employees
304
Beta
0.98
Industry
Hardware, Equipment & Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-26.9%
High: $15.24
From 52W Low
+591.9%
Low: $1.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.80
Below
20-Day
$11.20
Below
50-Day
$11.00
Above
200-Day
$6.70
Above
60-Day Support
$6.87
60-Day Resistance
$15.24
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+66.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+59.77%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.12x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$16M$15M$12M$9M
Gross Profit$6M$4M$3M$3M
Operating Income$-238,486$-3M$-5M$-3M
Net Income$-9M$-3M$-7M$-4M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.20$-0.07$-0.17$-0.09
Gross Margin34.1%29.8%22.0%29.1%
Operating Margin-1.5%-16.6%-38.0%-36.3%
Net Margin-57.5%-19.2%-57.8%-39.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 17.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 82/100Score impact: -44.7pt

Volume
100
2.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
85
$27M/day
Float
82
55M shares
Mkt Cap
29
$480M
Range
100
847% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$1.69$4.5090.8%Wide
2022$0.99$2.8797.4%Wide
2023$1.12$2.0056.4%Wide
2024$1.04$3.83114.6%Wide
2025$1.61$11.32150.2%Wide
3-Year Range
166.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
125.1%
Outstanding Shares
44M
Bid-Ask Spread
847.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.