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AXTI

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

AXT, Inc.

Conservative #905Aggressive #621Moderate RiskHigh 83
$36.75-10.30%
Day High$40.92
Day Low$36.45
Volume4.4M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $152W High $41
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-11.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-82.9%
Profit Margin
-24.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.24

Why This Score

AXTI scores 38.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (83/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (1415%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (25.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -15.9 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AXTI would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.2
Fundamental Score43.4
ML Score78.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
22.7
6 Month
25.3
Primary
1 Year
26.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
37.4
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.3
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-2.9
Final
38.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)37.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)56.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-19.6% to -12.9%
Medium-term
-26.2% to -16.6%
Long-term
-32.8% to -20.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 78

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.9/100
Target Upside-18.0%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+14.2%
6M Momentum+7.4%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+679.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.52)
Relative Strength vs Sector+1411.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+14.050
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P9
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 46 relative to sector peers46/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 37th percentileP37
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (45.6) + 9% ML (36.2) + SHAP(+1.9) = 46.7โ€”
Factor quality: +0.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 25.6%Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (1415% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.6pt (conviction=83)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (37.4%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #198 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AXTI38.2N/A-11.1%-24.1%$1.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM83.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS79.819.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
ASML77.648.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
RMBS75.448.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.89.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.274.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
DBX73.813.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.0B
AAPL72.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
TER72.190.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average47.249.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 4
Price Target
$23consensus
Low $10Median $23High $35
-37.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, terrestrial solar cells, RF amplifier and switching, infrared light-emitting diode (LEDS) motion control, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. It also provides semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates for use in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells; and semi-conducting GaAs substrates that are used in LED, screen displays, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3-D sensing using VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics/near-infrared sensors, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and other lasers, as well as laser machining, cutting, and drilling. In addition, the company offers germanium substrates for use in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photo voltaic cells, infrared detectors, and carrier wafer for LED. Further, it provides 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts. AXT, Inc. sells its products through direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was formerly known as American Xtal Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AXT, Inc. in July 2000. AXT, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

CEO
Morris S. Young
Employees
1,527
Beta
1.93
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
69.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.3%
High: $41.19
From 52W Low
+3133.6%
Low: $1.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$29.00
Above
20-Day
$25.40
Above
50-Day
$21.00
Above
200-Day
$8.70
Above
60-Day Support
$10.12
60-Day Resistance
$41.19
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+320%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+169.89%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$23M$28M$18M$19M
Gross Profit$5M$6M$1M$-1M
Operating Income$-4M$-1M$-7M$-10M
Net Income$-4M$-2M$-7M$-9M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.08$-0.04$-0.16$-0.20
Gross Margin20.9%22.3%8.0%-6.4%
Operating Margin-16.6%-4.0%-37.5%-53.1%
Net Margin-15.4%-6.8%-39.0%-45.5%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 85/100Score impact: -30.9pt

Volume
100
5.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$168M/day
Float
67
37M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.3B
Range
100
2626% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
83.0%
Outstanding Shares
45M
Bid-Ask Spread
2626.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.