Back to Dashboard
58

LPLA

🏦 Financial Services

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

Conservative #348Aggressive #201Low RiskMixed 52ML↑ 24pt
$318.47+3.16%
Day High$320.89
Day Low$307.41
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$25.5B
52W Low $26352W High $404
Market Cap
$26.8B
P/E Ratio
30.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
23.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-0.7%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.96

Why This Score

LPLA scores 58.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 36.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.96) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.1
Fundamental Score50.5
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.9
6 Month
68.0
Primary
1 Year
71.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
59.4
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-4.4
Final
58.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth75
Stability45
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.6% to +2.5%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +4.3%
Long-term
-2.3% to +6.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside+49.0%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality-0.081
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P81
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P36
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 71th percentileP71
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (46.8) + 9% ML (70.9) + SHAP(+1.8) = 50.8—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.4%. Max drawdown 16% (-3.1 pts). Price momentum -10% (-0.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($26.8B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.1pt (ML 24pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.0x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #104 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LPLA58.130.723.2%8.5%$26.8B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy22 analysts
Buy: 12Hold: 10
Price Target
$459consensus
Low $421Median $461High $500
+44.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

LPL Financial Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides an integrated platform of brokerage and investment advisory services to independent financial advisors and financial advisors at financial institutions in the United States. Its brokerage offerings include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, retirement and education savings plans, fixed income, and insurance, as well as alternative investments, such as non-traded real estate investment trusts and auction rate notes. The company also provides advisory platforms that provide access to mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, stocks, bonds, certain option strategies, unit investment trusts, and institutional money managers and no-load multi-manager variable annuities. In addition, it offers money market programs; and retirement solutions for commission-and fee-based services that allow advisors to provide brokerage services, consultation, and advice to retirement plan sponsors. Further, the company provides other services comprising tools and services that enable advisors to maintain and grow their practices; trust, investment management oversight, and custodial services to trusts for estates and families, as well as insurance brokerage general agency services; and technology products, such as proposal generation, investment analytics, and portfolio modeling. The company was formerly known as LPL Investment Holdings Inc. and changed its name to LPL Financial Holdings Inc. in June 2012. LPL Financial Holdings Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in San Diego, California.

CEO
Richard Steinmeier
Employees
9,118
Beta
0.56
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
29.4
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.1%
High: $403.58
From 52W Low
+21.2%
Low: $262.83
Moving Averages
10-Day
$323.60
Below
20-Day
$349.70
Below
50-Day
$360.20
Below
200-Day
$361.50
Below
60-Day Support
$298.31
60-Day Resistance
$400.16
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 18/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.54%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.61x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
11
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$4.9B$4.6B$3.8B$3.7B
Gross Profit$1.2B$898M$989M$966M
Operating Income$582M$72M$474M$503M
Net Income$301M$-30M$273M$319M
EPS (Diluted)$3.74$-0.37$3.40$4.24
Gross Margin23.7%19.7%25.8%26.3%
Operating Margin11.8%1.6%12.4%13.7%
Net Margin6.1%-0.6%7.1%8.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 23.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 30.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: -7.3pt

Volume
91
780K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$237M/day
Float
92
80M shares
Mkt Cap
87
$26.8B
Range
87
54% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$127.03$176.9632.8%Moderate
2022$140.65$271.5663.5%Wide
2023$179.00$257.6536%Wide
2024$187.19$336.4057%Wide
2025$262.83$403.5842.2%Wide
3-Year Range
77.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
80M
Bid-Ask Spread
54.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.