Back to Dashboard
42

RDWR

💻 Technology

Radware Ltd.

Conservative #801Aggressive #872Moderate RiskLow 18ML↑ 33pt
$22.99+2.89%
Day High$23.15
Day Low$22.02
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$999M
52W Low $1852W High $32
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
51.7
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
9.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
235.5%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

RDWR scores 41.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (29%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 51.7x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -12.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, RDWR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score41.8
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.4
6 Month
89.8
Primary
1 Year
94.6

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
57
Grade C
Base
40.1
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-2.3
Final
41.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+15.3% to +22.5%
Medium-term
+22.3% to +32.9%
Long-term
+32.0% to +46.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.7/100
Target Upside+11.5%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+18.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.37)
Relative Strength vs Sector+25.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality+0.226
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P48
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P50
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 96th percentileP96
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (63.1) + 9% ML (96.4) + SHAP(+3.0) = 69.1—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 10.4%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.1pt (conviction=18)—
Divergence penalty: -3.5pt (ML 33pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Country risk: Israel -6.5pt [structural: -2pt, macro: -4.5pt] (Active regional conflict, but strong legal system)Country
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (235%) far exceeds revenue growth (9.8%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 24x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-154.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #178 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RDWR41.851.79.8%6.7%$1.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold14 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 8
Price Target
$25consensus
Low $25Median $25High $25
+8.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Radware Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets cyber security and application delivery solutions for applications in cloud, physical, and software defined data centers worldwide. The company offers DefensePro, a real-time network attack mitigation device; AppWall, a Web application firewall; Radware Kubernetes WAF, a Web application firewall solution for CI/CD environments orchestrated by Kubernetes; and DefenseFlow, a cyber-command and control application. It also provides Alteon, an application delivery controller/load balancer for web, cloud, and mobile based applications; and LinkProof NG, a multi-homing and enterprise gateway solution for connectivity of enterprise and cloud-based applications. In addition, the company offers Security Updates Subscription, which provides protection from network elements, hosts and applications against the latest security vulnerabilities and threats; ERT Active Attackers Feed that provides customers with information pertaining to attack sources recently involved in DDoS attacks and web attacks; Alteon Global Elastic License that enables a high level of flexibility for ADC services across datacenters, private and public clouds; APSolute Vision, a network monitoring tool for cyber security and application delivery solutions; and MSSP Portal, a DDoS detection and mitigation service portal. Further, it provides Cloud DDoS Protection Service, which offers a range of enterprise-grade DDoS protection services in the cloud, as well as technical support, professional, managed, and training and certification services to its customers. The company sells its products primarily to independent distributors, including value added resellers, original equipment manufacturers, and system integrators. Radware Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

CEO
Roy Zisapel
Employees
1,137
Beta
0.97
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-27.2%
High: $31.57
From 52W Low
+24.5%
Low: $18.46
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.20
Below
20-Day
$25.00
Below
50-Day
$24.50
Below
200-Day
$25.30
Below
60-Day Support
$22.02
60-Day Resistance
$28.81
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 9/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.65%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.25x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$80M$75M$74M$72M
Gross Profit$65M$61M$60M$58M
Operating Income$4M$3M$3M$2M
Net Income$6M$6M$4M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.13$0.13$0.09$0.10
Gross Margin80.7%80.7%80.7%80.6%
Operating Margin4.9%4.2%3.8%2.2%
Net Margin7.5%7.5%5.7%6.0%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade C — 57/100Score impact: -11.8pt

Volume
54
244K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
64
34M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.1B
Range
96
71% spread
Composite Liquidity Score57/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.93$42.1951.4%Wide
2022$17.42$41.6782.1%Wide
2023$13.53$23.3553.3%Wide
2024$15.71$24.7644.7%Wide
2025$18.46$31.5752.4%Wide
3-Year Range
80%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
78.4%
Outstanding Shares
43M
Bid-Ask Spread
71.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.