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FTDR

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Frontdoor, Inc.

Conservative #393Aggressive #225Moderate RiskModerate 75ML↑ 17pt
$65.44+16.23%
Day High$65.60
Day Low$59.90
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$4.7B
52W Low $3652W High $70
Market Cap
$4.1B
P/E Ratio
15.8
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
3.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
37.4%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
3.80

Why This Score

FTDR scores 58.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 104.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (25%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (75/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 3.80) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.1 points) applied. FTDR's rank of #393 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.6
Fundamental Score50.9
ML Score80.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.3
6 Month
89.8
Primary
1 Year
94.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.8x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
56.7
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-2.1
Final
58.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)55.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 80

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+29.9%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+31.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.28)
Relative Strength vs Sector+23.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality+0.197
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
29%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P49
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P79
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 75 relative to sector peers75/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 92th percentileP92
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (74.9) + 9% ML (92.3) + SHAP(+2.4) = 78.8—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.8%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.0pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-41.8%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.8x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #33 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FTDR58.615.83.5%12.9%$4.1B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Frontdoor, Inc. provides home service plans in the United States. The company's home service plans cover the repair or replacement of principal components of approximately 20 home systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers, and ranges/ovens/cooktops, as well as electronics, pools, and spas and pumps; and central heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. It also offers ProConnect on-demand home services business and Streem, a technology platform that uses augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning that helps home service professionals quickly and accurately diagnose breakdowns and complete repairs. The company serves homeowners under the American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, OneGuard, Frontdoor, and Streem brands. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

CEO
William C. Cobb
Employees
2,120
Beta
1.35
Industry
Personal Products & Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
71.0
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.5%
High: $70.14
From 52W Low
+84.2%
Low: $35.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$57.30
Above
20-Day
$57.40
Above
50-Day
$58.10
Above
200-Day
$59.00
Above
60-Day Support
$51.71
60-Day Resistance
$65.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.41%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.03x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$617M$617M$426M$382M
Gross Profit$353M$356M$235M$185M
Operating Income$157M$162M$86M$20M
Net Income$106M$111M$37M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$1.42$1.48$0.48$0.10
Gross Margin57.2%57.7%55.2%48.4%
Operating Margin25.4%26.3%20.2%5.2%
Net Margin17.2%18.0%8.7%2.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 15.8Profit margin 12.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.8)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -7.1pt

Volume
82
554K avg/day
Dollar Vol
87
$30M/day
Float
89
72M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.1B
Range
100
97% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$32.06$57.5156.8%Wide
2022$19.06$39.0168.7%Wide
2023$20.56$38.9761.9%Wide
2024$29.41$60.4269%Wide
2025$35.61$70.1465.3%Wide
3-Year Range
109.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
72M
Bid-Ask Spread
97.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.