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47

CROX

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Crocs, Inc.

Conservative #686Aggressive #917Low Risk
$92.70-1.35%
Day High$95.32
Day Low$92.51
Volume1.2M
Mkt Cap$4.8B
52W Low $7352W High $123
Market Cap
$4.9B
P/E Ratio
6.9
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-1.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-108.5%
Profit Margin
-2.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.25

Why This Score

CROX scores 47.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 6.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (99/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.25) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.7 points) applied. CROX's rank of #686 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.5
Fundamental Score43.5
ML Score57.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
59.0
6 Month
66.0
Primary
1 Year
69.4

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
38
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
43.5
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+2.1
Final
47.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value95
Quality40
Growth35
Stability60
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.6% to +3.6%
Medium-term
-3.5% to +5.8%
Long-term
-4.4% to +7.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 57

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score37.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-13.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.24)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality-0.021
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
67%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P22
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P98
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P87
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 57th percentileP57
Blended score: 80% fundamental (44) + 20% ML (57) = 46.246.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 23% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -2.7ptValue Trap

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #60 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CROX47.56.9-1.5%-2.0%$4.9B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Crocs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. It offers various footwear products, including clogs, sandals, slides, flip-flops, boots, flats, wedges, platforms, socks, shoe charms, loafers, sneakers, and slippers under the Crocs brand name. The company sells its products in approximately 85 countries through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, and third-party marketplaces. As of December 31, 2021, it had 193 outlet stores, 107 retail stores, 373 company-operated stores, 73 kiosks and store-in-stores, and 14 company-operated e-commerce sites. The company serves in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.

CEO
Andrew Rees
Employees
7,910
Beta
1.55
Industry
Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
60.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.5%
High: $122.84
From 52W Low
+26.6%
Low: $73.21
Moving Averages
10-Day
$97.00
Below
20-Day
$90.80
Above
50-Day
$88.40
Above
200-Day
$90.70
Above
60-Day Support
$81
60-Day Resistance
$101.59
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 64/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+2.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-4.14%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.42x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
10
Confidence: 50%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$958M$996M$1.1B$937M
Gross Profit$524M$583M$709M$542M
Operating Income$146M$208M$-428M$223M
Net Income$105M$146M$-492M$160M
EPS (Diluted)$2.03$2.70$-8.82$2.83
Gross Margin54.7%58.5%61.7%57.8%
Operating Margin15.3%20.8%-37.2%23.8%
Net Margin11.0%14.6%-42.8%17.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 6.9Valuation below sector median (P/E 6.9)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 90/100Score impact: -3.3pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$126M/day
Float
78
48M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$4.9B
Range
94
68% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$70.34$183.8889.3%Wide
2022$46.08$136.8199.2%Wide
2023$74.00$151.3268.6%Wide
2024$85.71$165.3263.4%Wide
2025$73.21$122.8450.6%Wide
3-Year Range
77.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.3%
Outstanding Shares
52M
Bid-Ask Spread
68.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.