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23

FHTX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.

Conservative #1230Aggressive #1401Low Risk
$5.68-1.39%
Day High$5.75
Day Low$5.58
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$333M
52W Low $352W High $7
Market Cap
$332M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-33.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
12.0%
Profit Margin
-294.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

FHTX scores 23.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 105.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -0.25) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (14%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -22.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, FHTX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.2
Fundamental Score49.5
ML Score16.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
42.4
6 Month
47.4
Primary
1 Year
49.9

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-68.3%) with high ROE (105.5%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
29
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
27.8
SHAP
-2.1
Factors
+0.3
Divergence
-2.8
Final
23.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

40AVG
Value50
Quality33
Growth29
Stability77
Investment12

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.2% to -0.2%
Medium-term
-10.7% to -0.2%
Long-term
-14.2% to -0.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 16

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+102.3%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.67)
Relative Strength vs Sector-10.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality+0.121
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P7
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 16th percentileP16
Blended score: 80% fundamental (50) + 20% ML (16) = 42.842.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 16% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
Divergence penalty: -2.8pt (ML 34pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-68.3%) with high ROE (105.5%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #261 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FHTX23.2N/A-33.8%-294.2%$332M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 1
Price Target
$12consensus
Low $11Median $12High $12
+105.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Foghorn Therapeutics Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops medicines targeting genetically determined dependencies within the chromatin regulatory system. The company uses its proprietary Gene Traffic Control platform to identify, validate, and potentially drug targets within the system. It is developing FHD-286, a small molecule inhibitor of the enzymatic activity of BRG1 and BRM for the treatment of metastatic uveal melanoma and relapsed and/or refractory acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome; and FHD-609, a small molecule protein degrader for BRD9 to treat patients with synovial sarcoma. The company is also developing an enzymatic inhibitor and a protein degrader as selective modulators of BRM; and ARID1B selective modulators for the treatment of ovarian, endometrial, colorectal, bladder, and gastric cancers. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. to discover and develop novel oncology therapeutics against a transcription factor target; and with Loxo Oncology to create novel oncology medicines. Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Adrian H. Gottschalk
Employees
112
Beta
3.03
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-18.3%
High: $6.95
From 52W Low
+93.2%
Low: $2.94
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.70
Below
20-Day
$5.60
Above
50-Day
$5.60
Above
200-Day
$5.00
Above
60-Day Support
$4.21
60-Day Resistance
$6.95
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.28%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.66x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
49
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$4.75
Stop Entry Now Target
$7.16
Entry Zone
$5.54 โ€“ $5.77
SMA50 pullback zone ($5.54โ€“$5.77)
Exit Target
$6.95
52-week high / +22% target ($6.95)
Stop Level
$4.90
Below SMA200 ($4.9)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.72Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$8M$8M$6M$3M
Gross Profit$-12M$7M$6M$3M
Operating Income$-19M$-21M$-23M$-24M
Net Income$-16M$-18M$-19M$-20M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.25$-0.28$-0.30$-0.31
Gross Margin-145.3%88.1%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-226.9%-279.2%-385.0%-840.5%
Net Margin-194.4%-237.3%-316.4%-682.9%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 29/100Score impact: -26.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
42
175K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$1M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
14
$332M
Range
100
136% spread
Composite Liquidity Score29/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
136.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.