Back to Dashboard
21

VNDA

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Conservative #1256Aggressive #1304Moderate Risk
$8.60+3.86%
Day High$8.63
Day Low$8.13
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$508M
52W Low $452W High $10
Market Cap
$340M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
8.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-1066.5%
Profit Margin
-102.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

VNDA scores 21.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (28%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (21.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, VNDA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.6
Fundamental Score36.1
ML Score4.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
24.0
6 Month
26.9
Primary
1 Year
28.3

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
78
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
78
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
27.7
SHAP
-3.5
Divergence
-2.6
Final
21.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

33AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth29
Stability65
Investment19

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)70.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)86.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-12.9% to -7.0%
Medium-term
-17.1% to -8.7%
Long-term
-21.4% to -10.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 4

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.8/100
Target Upside+69.2%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score78.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-0.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.97)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality+0.193
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P3
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 36 relative to sector peers36/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 4th percentileP4
Blended score: 80% fundamental (36) + 20% ML (4) = 29.729.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 31% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (ML 32pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #269 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VNDA21.6N/A8.7%-102.0%$340M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies to address high unmet medical needs. The company's marketed products include HETLIOZ for the treatment of non-24-hour sleep-wake disorders; and Fanapt oral tablets for the treatment of schizophrenia. Its products under development include HETLIOZ (tasimelteon) for the treatment of jet lag disorder, smith-magenis syndrome, pediatric Non-24, autism spectrum, and delayed sleep phase disorder; Fanapt (iloperidone) for the treatment of bipolar disorder and a long acting injectable formulation program for the treatment of schizophrenia; and Tradipitant (VLY-686), a small molecule neurokinin-1 receptor (NK-1R) antagonist, for the treatment of atopic dermatitis, gastroparesis, and motion sickness. The company's products under development also comprise VTR-297, a small molecule histone deacetylase inhibitor for the treatment of hematologic malignancies and with potential use as a treatment for various oncology indications; VQW-765, a small molecule nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist for the treatment of psychiatric disorders; a portfolio of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator activators and inhibitors for the treatment of dry eye and ocular inflammation, as well as BPO-27 for the treatment of secretory diarrhea disorders, including cholera; and VHX-896, the active metabolite of iloperidone. It markets its products in the United States, Europe, and Israel. Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

CEO
Mihael H. Polymeropoulos
Employees
368
Beta
0.58
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
62.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.4%
High: $9.6
From 52W Low
+125.7%
Low: $3.81
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.00
Above
20-Day
$7.30
Above
50-Day
$7.40
Above
200-Day
$5.40
Above
60-Day Support
$4.89
60-Day Resistance
$9.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 100/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+59.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+16.63%
Rising
Volume Ratio
2.47x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
68
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$57M$56M$53M$50M
Gross Profit$53M$53M$48M$47M
Operating Income$-40M$-31M$-39M$-45M
Net Income$-141M$-23M$-27M$-29M
EPS (Diluted)$-2.39$-0.38$-0.46$-0.50
Gross Margin93.3%94.7%91.5%93.0%
Operating Margin-70.5%-55.6%-73.2%-89.0%
Net Margin-246.8%-40.1%-51.7%-58.9%

Why This Stock

HealthcareValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 78/100Score impact: -28.3pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
70
$15M/day
Float
81
53M shares
Mkt Cap
28
$340M
Range
100
152% spread
Composite Liquidity Score78/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.51$21.8640.4%Wide
2022$6.73$16.9386.2%Wide
2023$3.30$8.1584.8%Wide
2024$3.46$6.7564.4%Wide
2025$3.81$9.6086.4%Wide
3-Year Range
97.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
89.1%
Outstanding Shares
59M
Bid-Ask Spread
152.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.