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37

EYE

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

National Vision Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #832Aggressive #610Moderate Risk
$26.97-1.06%
Day High$27.30
Day Low$26.21
Volume1.4M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $1052W High $30
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-14.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
56.8%
Profit Margin
-0.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.81

Why This Score

EYE scores 42.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (72/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (122%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (19.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. EYE's rank of #832 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.2
Fundamental Score43.2
ML Score34.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
49.0
6 Month
54.7
Primary
1 Year
57.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (7180.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
75
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
38.4
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.7
Final
42.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

52AVG
Value50
Quality21
Growth56
Stability70
Investment65

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)86.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.4% to +0.8%
Medium-term
-4.6% to +1.7%
Long-term
-5.8% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 34

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.3/100
Target Upside+28.5%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score75.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+99.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.19)
Relative Strength vs Sector+120.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.077
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P8
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P31
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 34th percentileP34
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (34) = 41.441.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 12% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 122% โ†’ -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (7180.4%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #75 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EYE42.2N/A-14.3%-0.1%$2.2B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

CEO
Alexander N. Wilkes
Employees
13,411
Beta
1.39
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.2%
High: $30.02
From 52W Low
+158.1%
Low: $10.45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$27.00
Below
20-Day
$27.40
Below
50-Day
$27.30
Below
200-Day
$25.20
Above
60-Day Support
$25.1
60-Day Resistance
$30.02
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.77%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$23.96
Stop Entry Now Target
$34.65
Entry Zone
$27.03 โ€“ $28.12
SMA50 pullback zone ($27.03โ€“$28.12)
Exit Target
$33.64
52-week high / +22% target ($33.64)
Stop Level
$24.70
Below SMA200 ($24.7)
Risk / Reward:1 : 2.11Acceptable

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$487M$486M$510M$437M
Gross Profit$262M$286M$305M$252M
Operating Income$10M$16M$26M$-26M
Net Income$3M$9M$14M$-29M
EPS (Diluted)$0.04$0.11$0.18$-0.36
Gross Margin53.8%58.8%59.8%57.7%
Operating Margin2.0%3.4%5.1%-5.8%
Net Margin0.7%1.8%2.8%-6.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 89/100Score impact: -19.3pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
88
$33M/day
Float
91
78M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
100
187% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$41.58$65.9245.3%Wide
2022$22.59$49.5474.7%Wide
2023$13.71$43.82104.7%Wide
2024$9.56$24.1186.4%Wide
2025$10.15$29.8798.6%Wide
3-Year Range
128.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.8%
Outstanding Shares
79M
Bid-Ask Spread
187.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.