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57

CVCO

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Cavco Industries, Inc.

Conservative #435Aggressive #412Moderate Risk
$577.26+0.17%
Day High$584.24
Day Low$565.16
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$4.5B
52W Low $39452W High $713
Market Cap
$4.5B
P/E Ratio
25.5
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
12.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
8.4%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

CVCO scores 57.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 17.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (13%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. CVCO's rank of #435 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.1
Fundamental Score53.9
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.8
6 Month
73.5
Primary
1 Year
77.3

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
61
Grade Blow volume, low float
Base
53.1
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Final
57.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

65AVG
Value60
Quality55
Growth59
Stability75
Investment78

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)70.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)51.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.4% to +5.9%
Medium-term
+3.0% to +10.0%
Long-term
+4.6% to +14.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside-17.8%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.90)
Relative Strength vs Sector+11.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.097
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P79
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P37
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P35
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
Blended score: 80% fundamental (54) + 20% ML (60) = 55.155.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #40 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CVCO57.125.512.3%8.4%$4.5B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails manufactured homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services. The company markets its manufactured homes under the Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Nationwide, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle, Destiny, Commodore, Colony, Pennwest, R-Anell, Manorwood, and MidCountry brands. It also builds park model RVs; vacation cabins; and factory-built commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, workforce housing, schools, and housing for the United States military troops. In addition, the company produces various modular homes, which include single and multi-section ranch, split-level, and Cape Cod style homes, as well as two- and three-story homes, and multi-family units. Further, it provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans to purchasers of various brands of factory-built homes sold by company-owned retail stores, as well as various independent distributors, builders, communities, and developers. Additionally, the company offers property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured homes. As of April 3, 2022, it operated 45 company-owned retail stores in Oregon, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Indiana, Oklahoma, Florida, and New York. The company also distributes its homes through a network of independent distribution points in 48 states and Canada; and through planned community operators and residential developers. Cavco Industries, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

CEO
William C. Boor
Employees
6,500
Beta
1.31
Industry
Residential Construction
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19%
High: $713.01
From 52W Low
+46.7%
Low: $393.53
Moving Averages
10-Day
$584.10
Below
20-Day
$555.60
Above
50-Day
$602.60
Below
200-Day
$529.10
Above
60-Day Support
$451
60-Day Resistance
$713.01
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+5.53%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$502.96
Stop Entry Now Target
$764.80
Entry Zone
$596.57 โ€“ $620.68
SMA50 pullback zone ($596.57โ€“$620.68)
Exit Target
$742.52
52-week high / +22% target ($742.52)
Stop Level
$518.52
Below SMA200 ($518.52)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.49Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$581M$557M$557M$508M
Gross Profit$136M$134M$130M$116M
Operating Income$55M$62M$60M$39M
Net Income$44M$52M$52M$36M
EPS (Diluted)$5.58$6.55$6.42$4.47
Gross Margin23.4%24.2%23.3%22.8%
Operating Margin9.4%11.2%10.8%7.6%
Net Margin7.6%9.4%9.3%7.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 12.3%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 61/100Score impact: -8.0pt

Volume
48
195K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$113M/day
Float
9
8M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.5B
Range
100
81% spread
Composite Liquidity Score61/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$196.46$327.2449.9%Wide
2022$179.47$324.9957.7%Wide
2023$224.62$365.6347.8%Wide
2024$304.10$544.0856.6%Wide
2025$393.53$618.0344.4%Wide
3-Year Range
93.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.2%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
81.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.