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33

CRNC

💻 Technology

Cerence Inc.

Conservative #1031Aggressive #1126Moderate RiskML↑ 20pt
$7.87+2.21%
Day High$7.91
Day Low$7.68
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$354M
52W Low $652W High $14
Market Cap
$352M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-24.0%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
96.8%
Profit Margin
0.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.33

Why This Score

CRNC scores 32.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (17.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.33) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.5
Fundamental Score34.4
ML Score21.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.1
6 Month
76.1
Primary
1 Year
80.1

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-26709.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
34
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
71
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
28.5
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Final
32.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

51AVG
Value50
Quality32
Growth50
Stability52
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)40.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +4.2%
Medium-term
-2.9% to +6.5%
Long-term
-3.7% to +8.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 21

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score55.8/100
Target Upside+8.0%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score33.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-6.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.78)
Relative Strength vs Sector-31.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality-0.183
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
52%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P3
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.7σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 34 relative to sector peers34/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 21th percentileP21
Blended score: 80% fundamental (34) + 20% ML (21) = 31.731.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 34% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-26709.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Value trap penalty: -1.2ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #236 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CRNC32.5N/A-24.0%0.1%$352M
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
LRCX73.948.323.7%29.1%$295.9B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Cerence Inc. provides AI powered virtual assistants for the mobility/transportation market worldwide. The company offers edge software components; cloud-connected components and related toolkits and applications; and virtual assistant coexistence and professional services. It also provides conversational artificial intelligence-based solutions, including speech recognition, natural language understanding, speech signal enhancement, text-to-speech, and acoustic modeling technology. Cerence Inc. is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

CEO
Brian Matthew Krzanich
Employees
1,400
Beta
2.59
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-42.7%
High: $13.74
From 52W Low
+32.5%
Low: $5.94
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.90
Below
20-Day
$8.70
Below
50-Day
$10.40
Below
200-Day
$10.30
Below
60-Day Support
$6.41
60-Day Resistance
$13.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 5/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.09%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$115M$61M$62M$78M
Gross Profit$99M$44M$45M$60M
Operating Income$37M$-1M$-98,000$20M
Net Income$-5M$-13M$-3M$22M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.12$-0.31$-0.06$0.46
Gross Margin86.3%72.6%72.8%76.5%
Operating Margin32.2%-1.8%-0.2%25.9%
Net Margin-4.6%-22.0%-4.4%27.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyValuation below sector median (P/E 1062.8)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 71/100Score impact: -0.9pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
56
$8M/day
Float
74
44M shares
Mkt Cap
13
$352M
Range
100
131% spread
Composite Liquidity Score71/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$63.00$127.8067.9%Wide
2022$12.82$84.90147.5%Wide
2023$14.47$36.7987.1%Wide
2024$2.34$21.67161%Wide
2025$5.94$27.50128.9%Wide
3-Year Range
176.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.21x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.9%
Outstanding Shares
45M
Bid-Ask Spread
131.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.