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OSPN

💻 Technology

OneSpan Inc.

Conservative #420Aggressive #638Moderate RiskModerate 76
$11.37+2.06%
Day High$11.38
Day Low$11.11
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$436M
52W Low $1052W High $18
Market Cap
$434M
P/E Ratio
7.5
Sector avg: 49.8
Rev Growth
3.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
291.6%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.04

Why This Score

OSPN scores 57.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 25.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 24.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 7.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.04) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (10.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-7.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.7
Fundamental Score60.6
ML Score62.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.3
6 Month
79.7
Primary
1 Year
83.8

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
43
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
56
Grade Csmall cap
Base
53.7
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Final
57.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

76AVG
Value86
Quality73
Growth73
Stability73
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)43.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.3% to +4.0%
Medium-term
+0.1% to +6.7%
Long-term
+0.6% to +9.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 62

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+20.9%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-31.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality-0.193
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
62%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P27
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P98
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P88
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 62th percentileP62
Blended score: 80% fundamental (61) + 20% ML (62) = 60.960.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 31% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -2.2ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #92 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OSPN57.77.53.4%24.1%$434M
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
LRCX73.948.323.7%29.1%$295.9B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%

Company Overviewvia FMP

OneSpan Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets digital solutions for identity, security, and business productivity worldwide. The company offers OneSpan Sign, a range of e-signature requirements for occasional agreement to processing tens of thousands of transactions; OneSpan Cloud Authentication, a cloud-based multifactor authentication solution that supports a range of authentication options, including biometrics, push notification, and visual cryptograms for transaction data signing, SMS, and hardware authenticators; and OneSpan Identity Verification, which enables banks and financial institutions identity verification services. It also provides Mobile Security Suite, a software development kit; Mobile Authenticator Studio, a mobile authenticator that operates as a discrete mobile application; and authentication servers, which enables customers to administer a high level of access control. In addition, it offers Trusted Identity Platform, a cloud platform that simplify and secure user journeys; Intelligent Adaptive Authentication; and Risk Analytics, a comprehensive anti-fraud solution. It sells its solutions through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, resellers, systems integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was formerly known as VASCO Data Security International, Inc. and changed its name to OneSpan Inc. in May 2018. OneSpan Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. OneSpan Inc. was a former subsidiary of Guidewire Software, Inc.

CEO
Victor T. Limongelli
Employees
465
Beta
1.53
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-37.3%
High: $18.13
From 52W Low
+11.8%
Low: $10.17
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.10
Above
20-Day
$11.20
Above
50-Day
$12.00
Below
200-Day
$14.20
Below
60-Day Support
$10.17
60-Day Resistance
$13.51
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.21%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
82
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$63M$57M$60M$63M
Gross Profit$46M$42M$44M$47M
Operating Income$13M$8M$11M$17M
Net Income$44M$7M$8M$15M
EPS (Diluted)$1.13$0.17$0.21$0.37
Gross Margin73.6%73.6%73.5%74.3%
Operating Margin19.9%14.4%17.6%27.1%
Net Margin69.2%11.4%13.9%22.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 7.5Profit margin 24.1%Earnings quality grade DValuation below sector median (P/E 7.5)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 56/100Score impact: -6.0pt

Volume
84
601K avg/day
Dollar Vol
53
$6M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
21
$434M
Range
99
78% spread
Composite Liquidity Score56/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.59$29.1760.7%Wide
2022$8.15$17.7974.3%Wide
2023$7.64$19.2586.4%Wide
2024$9.22$19.5871.9%Wide
2025$11.00$20.3659.7%Wide
3-Year Range
90.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
78.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.