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57

BGC

🏦 Financial Services

BGC Group, Inc

Conservative #373Aggressive #355Low RiskLow 26ML↑ 37pt
$9.57+1.22%
Day High$9.60
Day Low$9.51
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$4.6B
52W Low $752W High $11
Market Cap
$4.6B
P/E Ratio
29.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
36.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
22.0%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.85

Why This Score

BGC scores 57.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 16.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (5.4% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.85) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. BGC's rank of #373 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.2
Fundamental Score54.0
ML Score50.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.7
6 Month
77.9
Primary
1 Year
82.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
57.3
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-4.1
Final
57.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.0% to +5.5%
Medium-term
+2.2% to +9.0%
Long-term
+3.3% to +12.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 50

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+22.1%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-0.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector-15.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.1)
Momentum Quality-0.053
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P90
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P17
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (45.4) + 9% ML (82.2) + SHAP(+4.4) = 53.1—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.4%. Stability bonus of +11.2 points. Max drawdown 15% (-2.7 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.6B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.3pt (conviction=26)—
Divergence penalty: -4.1pt (ML 37pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-42.6%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.8x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #109 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BGC57.229.736.3%5.2%$4.6B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy2 analysts
Buy: 2
Price Target
$12consensus
Low $12Median $12High $12
+20.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

BGC Group, Inc. operates as a financial brokerage and technology company in the United States and internationally. The company offers various brokerage products, such as fixed income, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, and other debt instruments, as well as related interest rate derivatives and credit derivatives; equities, energy and commodities, shipping, insurance, and futures and options. It also provides trade execution, connectivity solutions, brokerage services, clearing, trade compression and other post-trade services, information, and other back-office services to an assortment of financial and non-financial institutions. In addition, the company offers electronic and hybrid brokerage, other financial technology solutions, market data and related information services, and analytics related to financial instrument and markets. Its integrated platform is designed to provide flexibility to customers with regard to price discovery, execution and processing of transactions, and enables to use ots Voice, Hybrid, or in various markets, as well as fully electronic brokerage services in connection with transactions executed either OTC or through an exchange. It primarily serves banks, broker-dealers, investment banks, trading firms, hedge funds, governments, and corporations, as well as investment firms. BGC Group, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Sean A. Windeatt
Employees
3,971
Beta
1.01
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-13.2%
High: $10.96
From 52W Low
+31.4%
Low: $7.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.50
Above
20-Day
$9.30
Above
50-Day
$9.10
Above
200-Day
$9.40
Above
60-Day Support
$8.52
60-Day Resistance
$10.01
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 28/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.02%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$823M$723M$769M$653M
Gross Profit$739M$296M$325M$285M
Operating Income$43M$93M$116M$101M
Net Income$14M$28M$58M$55M
EPS (Diluted)$0.03$0.06$0.11$0.11
Gross Margin89.7%40.9%42.3%43.7%
Operating Margin5.2%12.9%15.0%15.6%
Net Margin1.7%3.9%7.5%8.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 36.3%Valuation below sector median (P/E 29.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: +8.0pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
82
$23M/day
Float
100
434M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.6B
Range
86
51% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$4.10$6.5245.6%Wide
2022$3.00$4.7946%Wide
2023$3.82$7.3262.8%Wide
2024$6.58$11.7956.7%Wide
2025$7.24$10.9640.9%Wide
3-Year Range
102.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
91.1%
Outstanding Shares
476M
Bid-Ask Spread
51.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.