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44

AXGN

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

AxoGen, Inc.

Conservative #802Aggressive #65Moderate Risk
$31.90+2.18%
Day High$32.10
Day Low$30.89
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $952W High $36
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
17.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
54.1%
Profit Margin
-1.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.56

Why This Score

AXGN scores 43.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (99/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (17.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.6
Fundamental Score39.4
ML Score57.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
53.3
6 Month
59.6
Primary
1 Year
62.7

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (410.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.6%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
40.0
SHAP
+0.8
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+2.4
Divergence
-0.4
Final
43.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

53AVG
Value50
Quality19
Growth88
Stability56
Investment50

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.0% to +3.2%
Medium-term
-0.7% to +5.7%
Long-term
-0.5% to +8.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 57

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.8/100
Target Upside+7.4%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score68.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+1.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-39.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector+41.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality+0.388
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P65
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P60
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 57th percentileP57
Blended score: 80% fundamental (39) + 20% ML (57) = 42.942.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 41% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.4pt (ML 18pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (410.4%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #119 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AXGN43.6N/A17.8%-1.0%$1.8B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy18 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 3
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $34Median $40High $41
+20.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human nerve allograft for bridging severed nerves without the comorbidities associated with a second surgical site; AxoGuard Nerve Connector, a porcine submucosa extracellular matrix (ECM) coaptation aid for tensionless repair of severed peripheral nerves; and AxoGuard Nerve Protector, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to wrap and protect damaged peripheral nerves, as well as reinforces the nerve reconstruction while preventing soft tissue attachments. Its products also comprise Axoguard Nerve Cap, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to protect a peripheral nerve end, as well as separates the nerve from the surrounding environment to reduce the development of symptomatic or painful neuroma; and Avive Soft Tissue Membrane, a processed human umbilical cord membrane that can be used as a resorbable soft tissue covering to separate tissues in the surgical bed. In addition, the company offers AxoTouch two point discriminator, a tool that is used for measuring the innervation density of surface area of the skin. It provides its products to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals plastic reconstructive surgeons, orthopedic and plastic hand surgeons, and various oral and maxillofacial surgeons in the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries, South Korea, and internationally. AxoGen, Inc. is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

CEO
Michael D. Dale
Employees
451
Beta
0.96
Industry
Medical - Devices
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.4%
High: $36
From 52W Low
+246%
Low: $9.22
Moving Averages
10-Day
$33.70
Below
20-Day
$34.10
Below
50-Day
$33.00
Below
200-Day
$20.70
Above
60-Day Support
$27.5
60-Day Resistance
$36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+54.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+28.54%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.12x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$60M$60M$57M$49M
Gross Profit$44M$46M$42M$35M
Operating Income$-10M$2M$2M$-2M
Net Income$-13M$708,000$579,000$-4M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.28$0.01$0.01$-0.08
Gross Margin74.1%76.6%74.2%71.9%
Operating Margin-16.3%3.2%3.0%-3.4%
Net Margin-22.0%1.2%1.0%-7.9%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 17.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 85/100Score impact: -36.0pt

Volume
97
929K avg/day
Dollar Vol
89
$33M/day
Float
75
45M shares
Mkt Cap
55
$1.8B
Range
100
290% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$8.48$23.9495.4%Wide
2022$6.87$13.6666.1%Wide
2023$3.45$11.32106.6%Wide
2024$5.55$17.23102.5%Wide
2025$9.22$34.24115.1%Wide
3-Year Range
163.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
90.2%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
290.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.