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50

SCVL

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Shoe Carnival, Inc.

Conservative #613Aggressive #824Moderate Risk
$20.68+5.40%
Day High$21.61
Day Low$20.41
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$566M
52W Low $1552W High $27
Market Cap
$564M
P/E Ratio
10.1
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
2.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
0.6%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.53

Why This Score

SCVL scores 50.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 10.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (95/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. SCVL's rank of #613 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.4
Fundamental Score46.0
ML Score58.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.4
6 Month
67.5
Primary
1 Year
71.1

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
64
Grade Blow float
Base
46.4
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.5
Final
50.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value88
Quality36
Growth43
Stability70
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)55.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)63.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.9% to +3.2%
Medium-term
-0.8% to +5.5%
Long-term
-0.7% to +7.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 58

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.7/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.6/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-4.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.37)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality-0.050
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
28%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P94
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P51
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 46 relative to sector peers46/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 58th percentileP58
Blended score: 80% fundamental (46) + 20% ML (58) = 48.448.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 23% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #55 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SCVL50.410.12.3%5.1%$564M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

CEO
Mark J. Worden
Employees
2,500
Beta
1.35
Industry
Apparel - Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.2%
High: $26.57
From 52W Low
+36%
Low: $15.21
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.50
Above
20-Day
$20.20
Above
50-Day
$19.20
Above
200-Day
$19.80
Above
60-Day Support
$16.35
60-Day Resistance
$21.61
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 59/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.31%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.66x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap UpRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$297M$306M$278M$263M
Gross Profit$112M$119M$96M$92M
Operating Income$19M$25M$12M$14M
Net Income$15M$19M$9M$15M
EPS (Diluted)$0.53$0.70$0.34$0.53
Gross Margin37.6%38.8%34.5%34.9%
Operating Margin6.3%8.2%4.3%5.3%
Net Margin4.9%6.3%3.4%5.6%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 10.1Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 10.1)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 64/100Score impact: -7.8pt

Volume
83
574K avg/day
Dollar Vol
64
$12M/day
Float
43
18M shares
Mkt Cap
32
$564M
Range
97
75% spread
Composite Liquidity Score64/100
FDCBA
low float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.64$46.2164.6%Wide
2022$19.43$41.7172.9%Wide
2023$19.24$30.9446.6%Wide
2024$24.94$46.9261.2%Wide
2025$15.21$34.2677%Wide
3-Year Range
102.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
65.3%
Outstanding Shares
27M
Bid-Ask Spread
75.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.